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ConocoPhillips' (COP) Q1 Profits to Jump Y/Y on Higher Output

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ConocoPhillips (COP - Free Report) recently provided some preliminary operational and financial updates for the March quarter of 2021. The company is scheduled to report first-quarter results on May 4. Its acquisition of Concho Resources, which was completed in January, has been taken into account in the preliminary data. It reiterated 2021 capital budget at $5.5 billion, suggesting an increase from the 2020 level of around $4.7 billion.

Production

ConocoPhillips’ first-quarter overall production is estimated in the range of 1,470-1,490 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day (MBoe/d), excluding Libya. The company reported production of 1,289 MBoe/d in the year-ago quarter. Also, the expected figure indicates a sequential rise from 1,169 MBoe/d. First-quarter Libya production is expected to be 40 MBoe/d. The total expected figure includes a 50 MBoe/d hit from cold Winter Storm Uri.

The company expects total crude oil production for the quarter to be 772 thousand barrels per day (MBbls/d), excluding Libya. The figure indicates a jump from 654 MBbls/d in the year-ago period.

Average Realized Price

The company expects first-quarter average realized prices in the range of $43-$45 per Boe, indicating a rise from the year-ago level of $38.81. Moreover, the estimated figure signals a significant improvement from the fourth-quarter 2020 level of $33.21 per Boe.

ConocoPhillips expects average realized price for crude oil in the band of $56-$58 per barrel for the first quarter, indicating a jump from $48.86 in the year-ago period. Furthermore, the figure suggests a rise from $40.89 per barrel in the fourth quarter.

Average realized price for natural gas is expected within $4.30-$4.50 per thousand cubic feet (Mcf), the upper limit of which indicates a surge from the year-ago figure of $4.30. Moreover, it signals a sequential rise from $3.23 per Mcf.

Profits

Hence, increased production, and improved oil and gas prices will likely to lead to a year-over-year rise in profit levels. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first quarter earnings per share is pegged at 52 cents, indicating a 15.6% year-over-year rise. However, the company expects a $600 million profit hit due to the Concho Resources acquisition and related hedges. Notably, the company expects full-year adjusted operating expenses of $6.2 billion.

Price Performance

The upstream company’s shares have jumped 35% in the year-to-date period.

Zacks Rank & Other Stocks to Consider

ConocoPhillips currently has a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). Other top-ranked players in the energy space include DCP Midstream, LP , Equinor ASA (EQNR - Free Report) and Royal Dutch Shell plc , each having a Zacks Rank #2. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

DCP Midstream’s bottom line for 2021 is expected to rise 45.3% year over year.

Equinor’s bottom line for first-quarter 2021 is expected to rise 111.8% year over year.

Shell’s bottom line for 2021 is expected to increase 200% year over year.

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