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Factors Setting the Tone for Chipotle's (CMG) Q1 Earnings

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Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG - Free Report) is scheduled to report first-quarter 2021 results on Apr 21. In the last reported quarter, the company reported a negative earnings surprise of 6%.

How Are Estimates Trending?

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter earnings is pegged at $4.88, which indicates growth of 58.4% from $3.08 registered in the year-ago quarter. For revenues, the consensus mark is pegged at nearly $1,743 million that suggests increase of 23.6% from the prior-year quarter’s figure.

Let’s discuss the factors that are likely to get reflected in the quarter to be reported.

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

 

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. Quote

 

Factors at Play

Chipotle's first quarter top-line is likely to reflect a surge in comps on the back of healthy demand for Carne Asada, strength in digital platform and rise in delivery menu prices. Notably, the company expects first-quarter comps to be in the mid to high teens range.

This along with increased focus on Chipotlanes, remodelling initiatives, digital pickup orders, app upgrades, enhancement of guest experience, as well as more aggressive brand marketing is likely to have driven performance in the first quarter.

However, rise in menu items such as cauliflower rice and avocado along with a surge in delivery and service fees and marketing expenses (for Super Bowl) are likely to have hurt margins in the first quarter. This along with dismal footfall on account of the pandemic is likely to have affected the company’s performance in the first quarter.

What Our Model Says

Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Chipotle this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat.

Earnings ESP: Chipotle has an Earnings ESP of +5.07%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: The company has a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Stocks Poised to Beat Earnings Estimates

Here are some stocks from the Zacks Retail-Wholesale space that investors may consider as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this quarter:

Starbucks Corporation (SBUX - Free Report) currently carries a Zacks Rank #2 and has an Earnings ESP of +7.28%.

BJ's Restaurants, Inc. (BJRI - Free Report) carries a Zacks Rank #3 and has an Earnings ESP of +9.87%.

Domino's Pizza, Inc. (DPZ - Free Report) carries a Zacks Rank #3 and has an Earnings ESP of +1.33%.

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