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Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF) to Report Q1 Earnings: What's in Store?

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Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. (CLF - Free Report) is slated to release first-quarter 2021 results before the opening bell on Apr 22. Benefits of higher steel and iron ore prices and contributions of AK Steel and ArcelorMittal USA acquisitions are likely to get reflected on the company’s performance.

The company’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the last four quarters, while missed once. It has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of roughly 67.3%, on average. The company posted a negative earnings surprise of around 14.3% in the last reported quarter.

The stock has rallied 376.4% in a year’s time compared with the industry’s 74.1% rise.

 


 

 

Let’s see how things are shaping up for the upcoming announcement.

What do the Estimates Say?

Cleveland-Cliffs sees first-quarter adjusted EBITDA of roughly $500 million.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter consolidated revenues for Cleveland-Cliffs is currently pegged at $3,821 million, which calls for a rise of 964% year over year.

Some Factors at Play

Cleveland-Cliffs is expected to have gained from higher steel prices in the quarter to be reported. Steel prices are on an upswing on the back of robust demand and supply shortages. Notably, U.S. steel prices have recovered strongly and hit record levels after plunging to pandemic-induced multi-year lows in August 2020. The benchmark hot-rolled coil (“HRC”) prices started to recover in September and gained strength since then. Notably, HRC prices surged past the $1,300 per short ton level last month. As such, higher domestic steel prices are likely to have boosted the company’s margins in the to-be-reported quarter.

Moreover, demand strength in China on higher crude steel production has boosted iron ore prices. A recovery in China has spurred up demand for the steel-making commodity, as reflected by higher imports. Steel production in China has also gained steam on government infrastructure spending and a strong rebound in manufacturing activities. Benefits of higher iron prices are likely to get reflected on Cleveland-Cliffs’ first-quarter results.

The company is also likely to have gained from its acquisitions of AK Steel and ArcelorMittal USA, which might have had a positive impact on its first-quarter performance. Notably, it is a major supplier to the automotive industry, both directly through its subsidiary AK Steel and indirectly through third-party clients. Higher demand in the automotive space is expected to have boosted the company’s flat-rolled steel shipments in the first quarter.

Cleveland-Cliffs, on Dec 9, 2020, also successfully completed the buyout of all the operations of ArcelorMittal USA and its subsidiaries, becoming the largest flat-rolled steel producer in North America. Contributions of this acquisition are expected to reflect on its March quarter revenues.

 

ClevelandCliffs Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

 

ClevelandCliffs Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

ClevelandCliffs Inc. price-eps-surprise | ClevelandCliffs Inc. Quote

 

Zacks Model

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Cleveland-Cliffs this season. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat. But that’s not the case here.

Earnings ESP: Earnings ESP for Cleveland-Cliffs is 0.00%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings for the first quarter is currently pegged at 33 cents. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: Cleveland-Cliffs currently carries a Zacks Rank #3.

Stocks That Warrant a Look

Here are some companies in the basic materials space you may want to consider as our model shows they have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this quarter:

Dow Inc. (DOW - Free Report) , scheduled to release earnings on Apr 22, has an Earnings ESP of +1.73% and sports a Zacks Rank #1. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

The Mosaic Company (MOS - Free Report) , scheduled to release earnings on May 3, has an Earnings ESP of +3.06% and carries a Zacks Rank #1.

United States Steel Corporation (X - Free Report) , scheduled to release earnings on Apr 29, has an Earnings ESP of +20.00% and carries a Zacks Rank #3.

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