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Valero (VLO) to Report Q1 Earnings: What's in the Cards?

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Valero Energy Corporation (VLO - Free Report) is set to report first-quarter 2021 results on Apr 22, before market open.

In the last reported quarter, the company reported a loss of $1.06 per share, narrower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of $1.48 owing to lower cost of sales. Notably, the leading independent refining player surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the bottom line in the last four quarters, the average being 95.3%, as shown in the chart below.

Let’s see how things have shaped up prior to the announcement.

Valero Energy Corporation Price and EPS Surprise

 

Valero Energy Corporation Price and EPS Surprise

Valero Energy Corporation price-eps-surprise | Valero Energy Corporation Quote

Trend in Estimate Revision

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter loss per share of $1.94 has seen no upward movement but four downward revisions in the past 30 days. The figure suggests a year-over-year deterioration of 670.6%.

The consensus estimate for revenues for the March quarter is $22.1 billion, indicating a marginal decline of 0.1%.

Factors to Consider

The international manufacturer and marketer of transportation fuels and petrochemical products recently announced that its refining and ethanol business segments were impacted significantly by a severe winter and ice storm, unofficially dubbed as Winter Storm Uri. Notably, the storm, which caused havoc to power systems in Texas, led the company to predict higher-than-expected incurrence of costs associated to natural gas and electricity, through the first quarter of 2021 by its refining and ethanol units.

The company has estimated the excess energy costs at the range of $520 million to $535 million. The company added that the excess costs mostly affected its refining businesses across the U.S. Gulf Coast region and U.S. Mid-Continent region.

Earnings Whispers

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Valero this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases chances of an earnings beat. That is not the case here as you will see below.

Earnings ESP: The company’s Earnings ESP is 0.00% as both the Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate are pegged at a loss of $1.94 per share. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: Valero currently carries a Zacks Rank #3.

Stocks That Warrant a Look

Here are some firms that you may want to consider as these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat in the upcoming quarterly reports:

Diamondback Energy, Inc. (FANG - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +1.26% and is a Zacks #1 Ranked player. The company is scheduled to release first-quarter results on May 3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here

EOG Resources, Inc. (EOG - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +14.8% and a Zacks Rank of 1. It is scheduled to report first-quarter results on May 6.

BP plc (BP - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +5.26% and a Zacks Rank #3. The firm is scheduled to release first-quarter earnings on Apr 27.

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