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Illumina (ILMN) to Report Q1 Earnings: What's in the Offing?

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Illumina, Inc. (ILMN - Free Report) is slated to release first-quarter 2021 results on Apr 27, after market close.

In the last-reported quarter, the company’s earnings of $1.22 surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 0.8%. Over the trailing four quarters, its earnings outperformed the Zacks Consensus Estimate on three occasions and missed the same in one, the average beat being 12.39%.

Let's discuss factors that are likely to have impacted its performance in the quarter.

Factors at Play

Illumina, during its fourth-quarter earnings call in February, had confirmed that its business has been registering strong rebound over the past few months. This business recovery is likely to have continued through each of the months of the first quarter, thus pushing up the top line. However, the emergence of the new coronavirus strain, along with the surge in cases of new infections, looms large on the company’s first-quarter revenues.

Sequencing Products

Illumina’s Sequencing revenues have started to should strong signs of rebound over the past few months.  In the last-reported quarter, sequencing consumables revenues registered robust sequential recovery on the back of strength in the company’s high-, mid- and low-throughput product portfolio. Illumina’s NextSeq has also been performing quite impressively over the past few months.

Illumina’s mid-throughput portfolio’s products, NextSeq 1000 and 2000, have also been witnessing favorable customer feedback and demand over the past few months. The company’s NextSeq Dx, following its NMPA approval in China, is expected to have driven demand in local hospitals in applications like oncology and infectious disease testing. These factors are likely to have significantly contributed to the Q1 top line.

Illumina, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

Illumina, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

Illumina, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Illumina, Inc. Quote

Illumina’s NovaSeq’s shipments have been robust over the recent months on the back of strong demand from customers. The availability of NovaSeq 6000 v1.5 Reagent Kit since August 2020 is likely to have continued boosting the company’s first-quarter revenues. Further, continued conversion of HiSeq customers to NovaSeq is likely to have boosted first-quarter revenues.

Commercial availability of the P3 high-output flow cell, which further extends the reach of the NextSeq 2000 Sequencing System since November 2020, is expected to have continued to make significant contributions to the company’s revenues in the to-be-reported quarter.

Illumina is likely to have continued to gain during the first quarter from the continued adoption of the TruSight Software Suite as well as its COVIDSeq Test (which is a high-throughput sequencing-based in vitro diagnostic or IVD workflow enabling the detection of SARS-CoV-2).

Sequencing Services

The Sequencing Services portfolio has been registering a recovery in revenues over the past few months. Further, oncology revenues are expected to have continued their momentum on the back of continued adoption of tumor comprehensive genomic profiling, whole-exome and whole-genome testing for treatment of rare and undiagnosed genetic disease. These are expected to have driven first-quarter revenues of Illumina.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter total sequencing revenues is pegged at $829 million, suggesting a decline of 2% from the last-reported quarter.

Preliminary Q1 Results

Illumina, in its first-quarter preliminary results released this month, expects total revenues to be approximately $1,085 million, implying a projected 26% improvement year over year.

Per the company, a robust sales order during the first quarter and solid year-over-year projected sequencing revenue growth of approximately 28% drove the top line. Strength in Sequencing consumables business, along with significant COVID-19 surveillance revenues for sequencing consumables, is also expected to have driven the top line.

Sequencing instrument business is expected to have registered growth of approximately 120% year over year, thus reflecting strength across all instrument categories.

Q1 Estimates

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter revenues of $1.08 billion suggests an uptick of 26.3% from the prior-year quarter’s figure.

The consensus mark for first-quarter earnings of $1.36 per share indicates a 17.1% decline from the year-ago quarter's reported figure.

What Our Quantitative Model Predicts

Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Illumina this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), #2 (Buy) or #3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat.

Earnings ESP: Illumina has an Earnings ESP of +8.62%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: The company currently carries a Zacks Rank #3.

Other Stocks Worth a Look

Here are a few other medical stocks worth considering, as these too have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this reporting cycle.

HCA Healthcare, Inc. (HCA - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +8.91% and a Zacks Rank of 2. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

The Cooper Companies, Inc. (COO - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +7.06% and a Zacks Rank of 2, at present.

Owens & Minor, Inc. (OMI - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +2.41% and is a Zacks #1 Ranked stock.

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