Back to top

Image: Shutterstock

What's in the Cards for Bristol-Myers (BMY) Q1 Earnings?

Read MoreHide Full Article

Bristol-Myers Squibb Company (BMY - Free Report) is scheduled to report first-quarter 2021 results on Apr 29, before market open.

The company’s shares have increased 6.9% in the year so far against the industry's decline of 2%.

Bristol-Myers has an excellent track record, beating earnings estimates in the last four quarters. The company delivered an earnings surprise of 6.57%, on average, in the trailing four quarters. In the last reported quarter, the company delivered an earnings surprise of 10.96%.

Let’s see how things are shaping up for the upcoming announcement.

Factors at Play

Bristol-Myers’ multiple myeloma (MM) drug, Revlimid (added with erstwhile Celgene’s acquisition), was the top revenue generator in the previous quarter, with sales of $3.3 billion, up 18% year over year.  This trend has most likely continued in the to-be-reported quarter, driven by strong demand. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for sales of the drug stands at $3.1 billion.

Blood thinner drug, Eliquis, was also one of the top revenue generators in the previous quarter with sales of $2.3 billion, up 12% year over year. This trend has most likely continued in the to-be-reported quarter, followed by market share increases. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for sales of the drug stands at $2.5 billion.

Sales of Bristol-Myers’ key immuno-oncology drug, Opdivo, revived in the previous quarter and registered 2% growth. Label expansions in recent months have most likely boosted sales of Opdivo, which is approved for multiple cancer indications. In January 2021, the FDA approved Cabometyx, in combination with Opdivo, for the first-line treatment of patients with advanced renal cell carcinoma (RCC).  The Zacks Consensus Estimate for sales of the drug stands at $1.8 billion.

Arthritis drug, Orencia, raked in sales of $867 million in the last reported quarter, up 9%, and the first quarter has likely witnessed similar levels. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for sales of the drug stands at $710 million.

Pomalyst posted a strong performance in the previous quarter and generated sales of $835 million, up 21% year over year. The trend has most likely prevailed in the quarter under review.

Melanoma drug, Yervoy, contributed $471 million to the top line in the previous quarter, up 22% year over year, and the first quarter is likely to have seen a sequential growth, driven by label expansion of the drug. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for sales of the drug stands at $473 million.

The approval of Reblozyl for the treatment of patients with anemia failing an erythropoiesis-stimulating agent and requiring two or more red blood cell (RBC) units over 8 weeks in adults with very low- to intermediate-risk MDS-RS or with myelodysplastic/myeloproliferative neoplasm with ring sideroblasts and thrombocytosis has also resulted in incremental sales.

The company also obtained approval of Zeposia (ozanimod) for the treatment of adults with relapsing forms of multiple sclerosis (RMS), including clinically isolated syndrome, relapsing-remitting disease and active secondary progressive disease. The top line is likely to have got a boost from the incremental contributions of Reblozyl, Inrebic and Zeposia.

Operating expenses are likely to have increased in the first quarter due to costs associated with the broader portfolio.

Key Recent Developments

Bristol Myers and bluebird (BLUE - Free Report) obtained FDA approval of their chimeric antigen receptor (CAR) T cell immunotherapy, idecabtagene vicleucel, under the brand name, Abecma. The regulatory agency approved Abecma as the first B-cell maturation antigen (BCMA)-directed CAR T cell immunotherapy for the treatment of adult patients with relapsed or refractory multiple myeloma after four or more prior lines of therapy, including an immunomodulatory agent, a proteasome inhibitor and an anti-CD38 monoclonal antibody.

The agency has also approved its CD19-directed CAR T cell therapy, Breyanzi (lisocabtagene maraleucel; liso-cel), for the treatment of adult patients with relapsed or refractory (R/R) large B-cell lymphoma (LBCL).

The FDA also accepted Bristol Myers’ new drug application (“NDA”) for investigational therapy, mavacamten, which is being developed for the treatment of patients with symptomatic obstructive hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (oHCM). The regulatory body has set an action date of Jan 28, 2022.

Earnings Whispers

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Bristol-Myers this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. Unfortunately, that is not the case here, as you will see below. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they're reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Earnings ESP: Earnings ESP for Bristol-Myers is -1.74%.

Zacks Rank: The company currently carries a Zacks Rank #3.

Stocks to Consider

Here are some stocks you may want to consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this quarter.

Incyte (INCY - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +2.59% and a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

AstraZeneca (AZN - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +5.26% and a Zacks Rank #3.

Zacks Top 10 Stocks for 2021

In addition to the stocks discussed above, would you like to know about our 10 best buy-and-hold tickers for the entirety of 2021?

Last year's 2020 Zacks Top 10 Stocks portfolio returned gains as high as +386.8%. Now a brand-new portfolio has been handpicked from over 4,000 companies covered by the Zacks Rank. Don’t miss your chance to get in on these long-term buys.

Access Zacks Top 10 Stocks for 2021 today >>

Published in