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Will Surging Sales in North America Drive Ford's (F) Q1 Earnings?

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Ford’s (F - Free Report) first-quarter 2021 earnings are likely to have benefited from the rising vehicle sales in North America, the company’s most significant market. The company is set to release quarterly results on Apr 28 after the closing bell.

Q4 Highlights for Ford’s North America Market

In the last reported quarter, wholesale unit volumes in the North American segment totaled 540,000, down from the 680,000 units reported in the prior-year quarter. Revenues in the North American segment came in at $22 billion, indicating a decline of 13% year over year. Nonetheless, EBIT surged 53.4% year over year to $1,074 million, thanks to favorable pricing strategy and the absence of UAW contract ratification expenses.

Ford’s trucks and SUV mix accounted for 93.1% of total automotive sales volumes from the North American market in the fourth quarter of 2020. Ford’s fourth-quarter van sales totaled 59,056 vehicles — making Ford the best-selling maker of commercial vans for 42 consecutive years.

North America Market to Beef Up Ford’s Q1 Results

Ford witnessed higher demand for vehicles in first-quarter 2021 amid the gradual reopening of the economy, consumer preference for personal transportation and rising optimism among consumers owing to the vaccination drive. Despite the global semiconductor deficit that the auto industry has been battling, Ford’s first-quarter top and bottom lines are likely to have benefited from the surging sale of vehicles in North America.

Notably, during the first quarter, the company recorded total sales of 521,334 units in the North American market, marking a year-over-year rise of 1%. The company’s electric vehicles (EVs) sales set a new record sales start during the quarter, marking a jump of 74.1% year over year.

Moreover, total truck sales in the quarter climbed 5.1% year over year to 277,233 units, marking the best retail start in 13 years for the truck segment. In fact, sale of America’s best-selling truck, Ford F-Series, totaled 203,797 vehicles in the first quarter, marking a rise of 9.2% year on year.

Further, demand for SUVs jumped 14.3% to 216,899 in the first quarter, with Lincoln SUVs having their best retail begin in 20 years. Highlights for Ford’s SUVs in the quarter include year-over-year increases in Explorer and Expedition, with Ford Bronco Sport powering Ford SUVs to best retail begin in 20 years.

Also, Ford’s first-quarter retail sales were up 23.1% year on year. In fact, the combined retail trucks and SUV sales went up 30.8%, achieving the best first-quarter performance since 2007.

However, demand for passenger cars plummeted 56.7% year over year in the quarter, majorly due to the declining sales of Fiesta, Fusion, Mustang and GT models.

Encouragingly, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for wholesale unit volumes in the North American segment is pegged at 571,000 for the quarter under discussion, indicating a rise from the 540,000 units reported in the previous quarter. Additionally, the consensus estimate for EBIT for the segment is pinned at $477 million, calling for a 59% surge year over year.

Thus, we believe robust vehicle sales from the North American segment are likely to have fueled the company’s first-quarter performance.

Ford’s Overall Earnings & Revenue Projections for Q1

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Ford’s quarterly earnings is pegged at 16 cents a share, which suggests a 169.57% surge from the prior-year profit. Also, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for sales of $32.03 billion calls for a 2.21% increase on a year-over-year basis.

Investors should note that our proven model does not predict conclusive earnings beat for Ford this season. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat.

You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Ford has an Earnings ESP of -2.08% and carries a Zacks Rank of 3.

You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Stocks to Consider

Here are a few stocks lined up to release first-quarter results for which our model predicts earnings beat.

The Goodyear Tire & Rubber Company (GT - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +67.74% and carries a Zacks Rank #3 at present. The company will announce first-quarter 2021 results on Apr 30.

IAA Inc. has an Earnings ESP of +5.6% and currently carries a Zacks Rank of 2. The company is slated to release earnings figures on May 4.

General Motors (GM - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +3.77% and carries a Zacks Rank #3, currently. The company is scheduled to report quarterly numbers on May 5.

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