Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. ( AJG Quick Quote AJG - Free Report) is slated to report first-quarter 2021 results on Apr 29, after market close. The company delivered an earnings surprise in each of the last four quarters, the average being 17.51%. Factors to Consider
Arthur J. Gallagher’s first-quarter results are expected to reflect lower interest income from U.S. operations, improved organic revenues, and higher property and casualty rates.
Fees and commissions in the to-be-reported quarter are likely to have benefited from revenues associated with acquisitions, organic revenue growth, and organic change in base commissions and fee revenues. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fees is pegged at $533 million, indicating an upside of 5.1% from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure. The consensus mark for commissions stands at $1.1 billion, implying 8.9% growth from the prior-year period’s reported number. The company expects a decline in covered lives on renewal business and lower frequency of special project work in the to-be-reported results. The company expects to see improved trend in new claims in the impending first-quarter release. Weak interest income from U.S. operations due to decreases in interest income earned on client-held funds is likely to have affected the company’s net investment income in the March quarter. Organic commission, fee, supplemental revenues, contingent revenues as well as strategic mergers and acquisitions are likely to have fueled revenue increase in the to-be-reported quarter. The company is expected to have seen property and casualty rates move higher in the quarter to be reported, partially or fully offset by future declines in exposure units. The company is expected to have continued expanding its international operations through acquisitions as well as organic growth in both Brokerage and Risk Management segments. It is likely to have to witnessed better first-quarter organic revenues in the Brokerage segment. For the first quarter, the company expects to save approximately in the range of $60-$65 million pretax after adjusting for pro forma costs related to acquisitions. In the Brokerage segment, the company is likely to have witnessed strong EBITDAC growth owing to cost savings in the first quarter. In the Risk Management segment too, EBITDAC is likely to have risen amid cost-control efforts in the to-be-reported quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter earnings per share stands at $1.83 per share, implying no change from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure. What the Zacks Model Says
Our proven model does not predict an earnings beat for Arthur J. Gallagher this time around. The combination of a positive
Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. But that’s not the case here. Earnings ESP: Arthur J. Gallagher has an Earnings ESP of -2.42%. This is because the Most Accurate Estimate of $1.79 is pegged lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.83. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter. Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. Price and EPS Surprise Zacks Rank: Arthur J. Gallagher carries a Zacks Rank #3, currently. Stocks to Consider
Some stocks from the insurance industry with the apt combination of elements to surpass estimates this reporting cycle are as follows:
Aon plc ( AON Quick Quote AON - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +0.79% and a Zacks Rank of 3, currently. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here. Palomar Holdings, Inc. ( PLMR Quick Quote PLMR - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +6.93% and is Zacks #3 Ranked, presently. The Allstate Corporation ( ALL Quick Quote ALL - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +2.67% and is a #3 Ranked player, currently. Zacks' Top Picks to Cash in on Artificial Intelligence
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