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Mosaic (MOS) to Report Q1 Earnings: What's in the Cards?

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The Mosaic Company (MOS - Free Report) is set to release first-quarter 2021 results on May 3, after the closing bell. Its first-quarter results are likely to reflect the benefits of higher prices and demand for phosphate and potash.

The fertilizer maker delivered an earnings surprise of 124.3%, on average, over the trailing four quarters. It posted an earnings surprise of 137.5% in the last reported quarter.

Shares of Mosaic have rallied 201.3% in the past year compared with 86.4% rise of the industry.

 


 

 

Let’s see how things are shaping up for this announcement.

What do the Estimates Indicate?

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Mosaic’s first-quarter consolidated sales is currently pegged at $2,314 million, which calls for an increase of 28.7% from the year-ago quarter’s tally.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for net sales in the Phosphates segment is currently pegged at $1,032 million, which calls for an increase of 66.7% year over year.

Moreover, the consensus mark for net sales in the Potash segment is currently pegged at $477 million, which suggests an increase of 7.9% year over year.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for net sales in the Mosaic Fertilizantes segment is currently pegged at $888 million, which calls for a rise of 21.4% year over year.

Some Factors at Play

Mosaic is likely to have benefited from higher demand across its markets and increased prices in the quarter to be reported. It is expected to have gained from higher sales volumes in Phosphates and Potash units in the quarter.

The company, in its fourth-quarter call, said that it expects to realize a $40-$50 per ton improvement in average realized prices in Phosphates on a sequential comparison basis in the first quarter. Moreover, it expects to achieve a $20-$25 per ton sequential increase in average realized prices in Potash in the first quarter.

Higher crop commodity prices and healthy farm economics are driving demand for fertilizers globally. Global phosphate markets remain robust on solid demand and pricing dynamics. Tight availability along with firm demand is driving up phosphate prices globally. Potash prices have also strengthened on the back of robust global demand, aided by strong grower economics, higher crop prices and low global inventory levels.

Moreover, the company’s actions to improve its operating cost structure through transformation plans are expected to have aided profitability. Transformational savings are also likely to have supported margins in the Mosaic Fertilizantes segment.

 

The Mosaic Company Price and EPS Surprise

 

The Mosaic Company Price and EPS Surprise

The Mosaic Company price-eps-surprise | The Mosaic Company Quote

 

Zacks Model

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Mosaic this season. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat. But that’s not the case here.

Earnings ESP: Earnings ESP for Mosaic is -8.37%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings for the first quarter is currently pegged at 50 cents. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: Mosaic currently carries a Zacks Rank #3.

Stocks That Warrant a Look

Here are some companies in the basic materials space you may want to consider as our model shows they have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this quarter:

AdvanSix Inc. (ASIX - Free Report) , scheduled to release earnings on Apr 30, has an Earnings ESP of +7.69% and carries a Zacks Rank #1. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Westlake Chemical Corporation (WLK - Free Report) , scheduled to release earnings on May 4, has an Earnings ESP of +0.64% and a Zacks Rank #2.

CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF - Free Report) , scheduled to release earnings on May 5, has an Earnings ESP of +4.53% and carries a Zacks Rank #3.

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