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Will Pfizer (PFE) Deliver a Beat This Earnings Season?

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We expect Pfizer, Inc. (PFE - Free Report) to beat expectations when it reports first-quarter 2021 results on May 4, before market open. In the last reported quarter, the company missed earnings expectation by 8.70%.

The drug giant’s performance has been mixed with the company exceeding earnings expectations in three of the last four quarters while missing in one. The company has a four-quarter earnings surprise of 7.18%, on average.

Pfizer Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

Pfizer Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

 

 

 

 

 

Pfizer Inc. price-eps-surprise | Pfizer Inc. Quote

Pfizer’s stock has risen 5.5% this year so far compared with an increase of 2.1% for the industry.

Factors to Note

The first-quarter 2021 results will be the second quarterly result for the “New Pfizer”.  Pfizer’s Biopharma unit has become the “New Pfizer” following the separation of the Upjohn unit. In November, Pfizer completed the transaction to divest its Upjohn Business and combine it with Mylan N.V. to form Viatris (VTRS - Free Report) .

Higher sales of Pfizer’s key brands, Eliquis, Ibrance and Inlyta, and significant contribution from new drug Vyndaqel/Vyndamax and higher biosimilar revenues are likely to have contributed to sales growth in the first quarter of 2021. Prevnar 13 sales in the United States might have been hurt by negative impact of the revised Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) recommendations and some impact of COVID-19. Favorable timing of government purchases for the pediatric indication benefited Prevnar 13 revenues in the fourth quarter of 2020, a one-time benefit, which is likely to have been missing in the first quarter of 2021.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for oncology and vaccine products is $2.73 billion and $4.69 billion, respectively.

A key contributor to Pfizer’s sales increase in the first quarter of 2021 will be it and partner BioNTech’s (BNTX - Free Report) COVID-19 vaccine, BNT162b2. BNT162b2 is a two-shot vaccine for COVID-19, which is now approved for emergency/temporary use several countries.

However, sales of some key drugs like Chantix in the United States and Enbrel in international markets declined in the past two quarters. While Chantix sales are expected to have been hurt due to loss of exclusivity in November 2020, sales of Enbrel in key European markets, Japan and Brazil are likely to have been hurt due to biosimilar competition.

Earnings Whispers

Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Pfizer in the soon-to-be-reported quarter because it has the right combination of the two key ingredients. A stock needs to have both a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) for a likely positive surprise.

Earnings ESP: Pfizer’s Earnings ESP is +0.69% as the Most Accurate Estimate of 80 cents is pegged higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 79 cents. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: Pfizer has a Zacks Rank #3

Another Stock to Consider

Here is a large drug stock that also has the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this time around:

AstraZeneca (AZN - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +5.26% and a Zacks Rank #3.You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

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In-Depth Zacks Research for the Tickers Above


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AstraZeneca PLC (AZN) - free report >>

Pfizer Inc. (PFE) - free report >>

BioNTech SE Sponsored ADR (BNTX) - free report >>

Viatris Inc. (VTRS) - free report >>

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