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What's in Store for Callon Petroleum's (CPE) Q1 Earnings?

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Callon Petroleum Company  is scheduled to report first-quarter 2021 results on May 5, after the closing bell.

In the last reported quarter, the exploration and production company came up with adjusted earnings of $1.00 per share, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 41 cents due to higher oil equivalent production volumes as well as decreased per unit lease operating expenses, partially offset by lower oil price realization.

The firm beat earnings estimates thrice and missed once in the trailing four quarters, delivering an average surprise of 150.1%.

Callon Petroleum Company Price and EPS Surprise

Callon Petroleum Company Price and EPS Surprise

Callon Petroleum Company price-eps-surprise | Callon Petroleum Company Quote

Let’s see how things have shaped up for this announcement.

Trend in Estimate Revision

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter earnings per share of 90 cents has witnessed no upward movement but five downward revisions in the past 30 days. This estimate is indicative of a 25% decrease from the year-ago reported figure.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter revenues is pegged at $278.9 million, suggesting a decrease of 3.8% from the year-ago reported figure.

Factors to Note

Callon Petroleum’s focus on exploration and production of oil and gas resources in the Permian Basin is expected to reflect on first-quarter results. Permian has three major sub basins — Midland Basin, Delaware Basin and Central Basin Platform. Of these, the company has strong footprint in the Midland and Delaware Basins, which are likely to have supported first-quarter production. However, economic slowdown caused by the coronavirus pandemic might have affected its production volumes.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for average daily production volumes is pegged at 88,833 barrels of oil equivalent per day (Boe/d), indicating a significant decrease from the year ago period’s 100,955 Boe/d. The same for natural gas output is pegged at 7,599 million cubic feet (MMcf), pointing to fall from the year-ago quarter’s 9,793 MMcf. Moreover, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for crude oil production volumes is pegged at 4,579 thousand barrels (MBbls), implying a decrease from the year-ago period’s 5,847 MBbls.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for average sales price for oil (before hedging) is pegged at $45.98 per barrel, which indicates a decrease from the year-ago period’s $48.90. However, the consensus estimate for average natural gas sales price of $2.35 cents per Mcf suggests a significant increase from the first-quarter 2020 level of $1.13.

Increased natural gas price realization is expected to have partially offset the negatives from lower production volumes and oil prices. 

Earnings Whispers

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Callon Petroleum this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. That is not the case here as you will see below.

Earnings ESP: Earnings ESP for the company is 0.00%. This is because the Most Accurate Estimate of earnings of 90 cents per share is in line with the Zacks Consensus Estimate. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.  

Zacks Rank: Callon Petroleum currently carries a Zacks Rank #3.

Energy Stocks With Favorable Combination

Here are some companies from the Energy space that you may want to consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat in the upcoming quarterly reports:

NOW Inc. (DNOW - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +31.37% and a Zacks Rank of 2. It is scheduled to report first-quarter results on May 5. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

EQT Corporation (EQT - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +4.40% and is a Zacks #3 Ranked player. The company is scheduled to release first-quarter results on May 5. 

Cimarex Energy Co. has an Earnings ESP of +14.43% and a Zacks Rank of 3. It is scheduled to report first-quarter results on May 5.

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