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Alliance Data (ADS) Soars 10%: Is Further Upside Left in the Stock?

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Alliance Data Systems shares rallied 10% in the last trading session to close at $118.64. This move can be attributable to notable volume with a higher number of shares being traded than in a typical session. This compares to the stock's 3.8% loss over the past four weeks.

Alliance Data’s operating earnings of $6.28 per share for the first quarter of 2021 beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.23. The bottom line increased more than eight-fold year over year.

The quarterly earnings benefited from lower expenses.  Credit sales were better as a result of recovery of in-store sales performance, coupled with continued strength of digital spending. Application and new account growth rates improved as consumers were increasingly active in omnichannel shopping and engagement.

Alliance Data estimates credit sales to increase at a high single- to low-double-digit rate, with net loss rate below 6% in 2021 and in the mid-to-upper 5% range in the second quarter of 2021.

Credit card and loan receivables at 2021 end are projected to be in line with 2020 end levels. It projects high-single-digit to low-double-digit card receivables growth as it enters 2022.

Price and Consensus

Price Consensus Chart for ADS

This manager of loyalty and rewards programs for retailers and others is expected to post quarterly earnings of $3.23 per share in its upcoming report, which represents a year-over-year change of +330.7%. Revenues are expected to be $1.08 billion, down 22% from the year-ago quarter.

While earnings and revenue growth expectations are important in evaluating the potential strength in a stock, empirical research shows a strong correlation between trends in earnings estimate revisions and near-term stock price movements.

For Alliance Data, the consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has been revised 7.9% higher over the last 30 days to the current level. And a positive trend in earnings estimate revision usually translates into price appreciation. So, make sure to keep an eye on ADS going forward to see if this recent jump can turn into more strength down the road.

The stock currently carries a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today's Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) stocks here >>>>

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