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CF Industries (CF) to Post Q1 Earnings: What's in Store?

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CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF - Free Report) is set to release first-quarter 2021 results on May 5, after the closing bell.

The company’s first-quarter results are likely to reflect the benefits of higher nitrogen prices and increased demand. However, increase in natural gas costs is likely to have affected margins in the to-be-reported quarter.

Shares of CF Industries have surged 85.1% in the past year compared with 92.8% rise of the industry.

Let’s see how things are shaping up for this announcement.

Zacks Model

Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for CF Industries this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat.

Earnings ESP: Earnings ESP for CF Industries is +4.53%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate is currently pegged at 57 cents. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: CF Industries currently carries a Zacks Rank #3.

Factors at Play in Q1

Higher nitrogen pricing driven by higher commodity crop futures prices as well as energy prices in Asia and Europe is likely to have contributed to the company’s margins. Nitrogen demand is also expected to have been supported by higher Canola plantings in Canada. Demand for nitrogen is also expected to have been higher in North America for industrial uses.

The company is also likely to have gained from consistently strong demand for urea imports from Brazil and India. Lack of active domestic urea production and improved farm economics are supporting demand in Brazil.

However, higher natural gas costs are likely to have increased cost of sales and impacted the company’s margins in the first quarter.

What do the Estimates Indicate?

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CF Industries' first-quarter total sales is currently pegged at $1,095 million, which calls for 12.8% increase year over year.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for total sales in the Ammonia segment is currently pegged at $207 million, calling for a 7.3% rise on a year-over-year basis. The same for the Granular Urea segment is at $405 million, which suggests an increase of 20.2% year over year.

The consensus mark for sales in the urea ammonium nitrate solution segment is currently pegged at $256 million, which suggests an increase of 8.9% year over year.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for total sales in the ammonium nitrate segment is currently pegged at $144 million, which indicates an increase of 24.1% year over year.

Other Stocks That Warrant a Look

Here are some companies in the basic materials space you may want to consider as our model shows that they too have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this quarter:

The Scotts Miracle-Gro (SMG - Free Report) , scheduled to release earnings on May 5, has an Earnings ESP of +0.73% and a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Koppers Holdings, Inc. (KOP - Free Report) , scheduled to release earnings on May 7, has an Earnings ESP of +5.26% and sports a Zacks Rank #2.

Westlake Chemical Company (WLK - Free Report) , scheduled to release earnings on May 4, has an Earnings ESP of +0.64% and carries a Zacks Rank #3.

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