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What's in Store for Spirit AeroSystems' (SPR) Q1 Earnings?

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Spirit AeroSystems Holdings, Inc. (SPR - Free Report) is set to report first-quarter 2021 results on May 5, before market open. In the last reported quarter, the company delivered a negative earnings surprise of 95.52%.

In the trailing four quarters, the company came up with a negative earnings surprise of 30.99%, on average.

Let's take a closer look at the factors influencing Spirit AeroSystems’ upcoming results.

Factors to Consider

Spirit AeroSystems' shipset deliveries might have once again tumbled in the first quarter, as both its major customers, Boeing (BA - Free Report) and Airbus (EADSY - Free Report) , have continued to struggle due to the drastic impacts of the coronavirus pandemic on commercial aerospace. Over the past few quarters, Spirit AeroSystems’ shipset production has been toward the lower end. This is evident as the company could only manage to produce 71 of them in 2020, way less than 619 produced a year earlier. We expect this trend to have continued and impacted its soon-to-be reported results.

Moreover, the company's commercial deliveries on a whole are expected to have declined. Such dearth of deliveries is expected to have adversely impacted Spirit AeroSystems’ first-quarter top line.

Notably, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter revenues is pegged at $859 million, indicating a 20.2% plunge from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure.

Over the past few quarters, Spirit AeroSystems has been incurring excess capacity costs, abnormal production costs related to COVID-19, restructuring expenses and other expenses related to the Boeing 787 and Airbus A350 programs. Since COVID-19 prevailed during the first quarter, this trend is likely to have weighed on the company’s bottom-line performance in the soon-to-be-reported quarter.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Spirit AeroSystems’ first-quarter loss stands at 93 cents per share, suggesting a significant deterioration against a loss of 79 cents reported in the prior-year quarter.

Earnings Whispers

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Spirit AeroSystems this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat. But this is not the case here.

Earnings ESP: The company’s Earnings ESP is -2.33%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: Spirit AeroSystems currently carries a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Spirit Aerosystems Holdings, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

A Stock to Consider

Here is a defense stock you may want to consider, as it has the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat in its upcoming release:

Triumph Group, Inc. (TGI - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +9.80% and a Zacks Rank #3.

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