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Progressive (PGR) to Report Q2 Earnings: What's in the Cards?

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The Progressive Corporation (PGR - Free Report) is slated to report second-quarter 2021 results on Jul 15, before market open. The company delivered a negative earnings surprise of 3.37% in the last reported quarter.

Factors to Consider    

Premiums in the second quarter are likely to have benefited from its leadership position, strength in both Vehicle and Property businesses, solid policies in force, higher retention, competitive rates, compelling product portfolio and strategic acquisition.  The Zacks Consensus Estimate for premiums earned is pegged at $11.5 billion.

Focus on segmentation and risk selection might have aided policies in force. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for personal lines policies in force is pegged at 22,744 million, indicating an increase of 10.2% from the year-ago reported quarter.

A near-zero interest rate is likely to have weighed on investment income. The Zacks Consensus Estimate is pegged at $207 million, indicating an increase of 57.3% from the year-ago reported quarter.

Improved premiums, increase in service revenues and fees as well as other revenues are likely to have fueled revenues. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for second-quarter revenues stands at $11.8 billion, suggesting 16.8% year-over-year growth.

Progressive is a leading auto insurer in the United States, boasting one of the largest auto insurance groups. It is also the largest seller of motorcycle policies, the market leader in commercial auto insurance and one of the top 15 homeowners carriers based on premiums written.  Its personal auto business is likely to have benefited from its focus on marketing and competitive product offerings as well as strong market presence.

Expenses might have risen on higher loss and loss-adjustment expenses, and policy acquisition costs plus other underwriting expenses. The consensus estimate for Personal Line loss and loss adjustment expenses ratio is pegged at 74, indicating a deterioration of 1600 basis points from year-ago quarter.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings is pegged at $1.17, indicating a 36.1% decrease from the year-ago quarter's reported number.

What the Zacks Model Says

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Progressive this time around. This is because the stock needs to have the right combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold). This is not the case here.

Earnings ESP: Progressive has an Earnings ESP of -10.62. This is because the Most Accurate Estimate of $1.05 is pegged lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.17. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: Progressive currently carries a Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell).

Stocks to Consider

Some insurance stocks with the right combination of elements to come up with an earnings beat this time around are:

Chubb Limited (CB - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +7.27% and a Zacks Rank of 2. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Kinsale Capital Group (KNSL - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +0.30% and a Zacks Rank #2.

The Allstate Corporation (PLMR - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +3.35% and a Zacks Rank of 3.