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Is a Beat Likely for AbbVie (ABBV) This Earnings Season?

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We expect AbbVie (ABBV - Free Report) to beat expectations when it reports second-quarter 2021 results on Jul 30, before market open. In the last reported quarter, the company delivered an earnings surprise of 6.50%.

The large drugmaker’s performance has been pretty impressive, with earnings beat in each of the trailing four quarters. The company has a four-quarter earnings surprise of 4.08%, on average.

AbbVie’s stock has gained 10% so far this year compared with an increase of 11.8% for the industry.

Zacks Investment Research
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Factors to Consider

Sales of the company’s key drugs are expected to have increased in the second quarter on the back of robust demand despite the COVID-19 pandemic.

Second-quarter earnings are expected between $3.05 and $3.09 per share. AbbVie expects adjusted revenues of approximately $13.6 billion in the second quarter, indicating year-over-year growth of nearly 30%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings and revenues stands at $3.11 per share and $13.71 billion, respectively.

In immunology, Humira’s demand in the United States has remained high despite lower new patient starts in the first quarter of 2021. U.S. sales of the drug are likely to have increased in the second quarter. Label expansion in pediatric patients with ulcerative colitis is likely to have brought additional revenues. However, Humira’s international sales are expected to have declined significantly due to the impact of biosimilars in Europe. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Humira stands at $5.12 billion.

Sales of new immunology drugs, Skyrizi and Rinvoq, reflected strong uptake during the last few quarters. The strong uptake is expected to have continued in the soon-to-be-reported quarter.

In oncology, AbbVie markets Imbruvica in partnership with Johnson & Johnson (JNJ - Free Report) and Venclexta in partnership with Roche (RHHBY - Free Report) . Sales of the drugs are likely to have been strong in the soon-to-be reported quarter. However, lower new patient starts in the chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) indication for both Imbruvica and Venclexta due to the COVID-19 pandemic is likely to have hurt sales. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Imbruvica and Venclexta is pegged at $1.41 billion and $412 million, respectively.

AbbVie’s new HCV drug, Mavyret, recorded a significant decline in the past few quarters due to lower patient volumes amid the COVID-19 pandemic as well as rising competition. We expect the downtrend to have continued in the second quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Mavyret stands at $469 million.

Sales of AbbVie’s aesthetics products — Botox cosmetic and Juverderm — were above pre-COVID levels during the first quarter of 2021, reflecting significant pent-up demand. Moreover, sales of the neuroscience franchise also showed strong growth in the first quarter of 2021. The trend is expected to have continued for both franchises in the soon-to-be reported quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for aesthetics and neuroscience products stands at $1.13 billion and $1.39 billion, respectively.

Investor focus will likely be on any update related to financial guidance for 2021 with the changing COVID-19 landscape.

Earnings Whispers

Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for AbbVie this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Earnings ESP: Earnings ESP, which represents the difference between the Most Accurate Estimate of $3.13 per share and the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.11, is +0.86%.

Zacks Rank: AbbVie has a Zacks Rank #3.

AbbVie Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

AbbVie Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

AbbVie Inc. price-eps-surprise | AbbVie Inc. Quote

Another Stock to Consider

Here is a large drug stock that also has the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this time around:

Pfizer (PFE - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +2.33% and a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.


In-Depth Zacks Research for the Tickers Above


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Roche Holding AG (RHHBY) - free report >>

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) - free report >>

Pfizer Inc. (PFE) - free report >>

AbbVie Inc. (ABBV) - free report >>