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Barrick (GOLD) to Post Q2 Earnings: What's in the Cards?

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Barrick Gold Corporation (GOLD - Free Report) is scheduled to report second-quarter 2021 results before the opening bell on Aug 9. The company’s results are expected to reflect the benefits of higher year-over-year gold prices.

The gold mining giant surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, the average being 18.4%.  It posted an earnings surprise of 11.5% in the last reported quarter.

The stock is down 26.9% in the past year compared with the industry’s 25.2% decline.

 

Zacks Investment Research
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research



Let’s see how things are shaping up for this announcement.

What Do the Estimates Say?

Last month, Barrick announced preliminary results for second-quarter 2021. It reported preliminary second-quarter production of 1.04 million ounces of gold and 96 million pounds of copper. The average market price for gold in the quarter was $1,816 per ounce, while the average market price for copper was $4.40 per pound.

Barrick also expects second-quarter gold cost of sales per ounce to be 2-4% higher, total cash costs per ounce to be 1-3% higher and all-in sustaining costs per ounce to be 6-8% higher than first-quarter levels. Second-quarter copper cost of sales per pound is also projected to be 14-16% higher sequentially. Copper all-in sustaining costs per pound are also forecast to be 20-22% higher than the first quarter.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for second-quarter consolidated revenues for Barrick is currently pegged at $2,967 million, which calls for a decline of 2.9% year over year.

Some Factors to Watch For

The company is expected to have benefited from higher year-over-year gold prices in the second quarter. Apprehensions regarding the global economic growth fueled safe haven demand for gold last year. The ultra-low interest rate environment, geopolitical tensions and fears over supply crunch stemming from suspensions of operations by miners amid the pandemic also spurred up demand for the yellow metal.

However, gold lost the momentum this year, largely due to vaccine rollouts and optimism over economic recovery. Gold prices dipped below $1,700 per ounce to the lowest level in nine months in early March 2021 on a strong U.S. dollar and an uptrend in treasury yields. Nevertheless, gold rallied 11% in April and May, ending above $1,900 per ounce driven by apprehensions over inflation, a weaker dollar, higher central bank demand and holiday and wedding related purchases in China. Gold prices, however, retreated in June and dropped 7% for the month to below $1,800 per ounce on a hawkish Federal Reserve outlook and a rebound in dollar.

Notwithstanding the decline in June, Barrick is likely to have benefited from higher averaged realize gold prices on a year-over-year basis in the second quarter. Higher prices are expected to have supported its top line and margins.

However, sequentially lower gold production is likely have affected the company’s performance in the quarter to be reported. The preliminary gold production in the second quarter was lower than the previous quarter’s level of 1.1 million ounces due to planned maintenance shutdowns at Nevada Gold Mines’ processing facilities further affected by a mechanical mill failure at Carlin’s Goldstrike roaster as well as planned maintenance at Pueblo Viejo. Some impact of sequentially higher costs is also likely to reflect in the company’s June quarter results.

 

Barrick Gold Corporation Price and EPS Surprise

 

Barrick Gold Corporation Price and EPS Surprise

Barrick Gold Corporation price-eps-surprise | Barrick Gold Corporation Quote

 

Zacks Model

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Barrick this season. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat. But that’s not the case here.

Earnings ESP: Earnings ESP for Barrick is 0.00%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings for the second quarter is currently pegged at 26 cents. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: Barrick currently carries a Zacks Rank #3.

Stocks That Warrant a Look

Here are some companies in the basic materials space you may want to consider as our model shows they have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this quarter:

Sociedad Quimica y Minera de Chile S.A. (SQM - Free Report) scheduled to release earnings on Aug 18, has an Earnings ESP of +21.88% and carries a Zacks Rank #2. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

GrowGeneration Corp. (GRWG - Free Report) , scheduled to release earnings on Aug 12, has an Earnings ESP of +3.45% and has a Zacks Rank #2.

Hecla Mining Company (HL - Free Report) , scheduled to release earnings on Aug 5, has an Earnings ESP of +3.13% and carries a Zacks Rank #3.

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