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Earnings Estimates Rising for American Financial (AFG): Will It Gain?

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American Financial Group (AFG - Free Report) could be a solid addition to your portfolio given a notable revision in the company's earnings estimates. While the stock has been gaining lately, the trend might continue since its earnings outlook is still improving.

The upward trend in estimate revisions for this property and casualty insurer reflects growing optimism of analysts on its earnings prospects, which should get reflected in its stock price. After all, empirical research shows a strong correlation between trends in earnings estimate revisions and near-term stock price movements. This insight is at the core of our stock rating tool -- the Zacks Rank.

The five-grade Zacks Rank system, which ranges from a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) to a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell), has an impressive externally-audited track record of outperformance, with Zacks #1 Ranked stocks generating an average annual return of +25% since 2008.

For American Financial, strong agreement among the covering analysts in revising earnings estimates upward has resulted in meaningful improvement in consensus estimates for the next quarter and full year.

The chart below shows the evolution of forward 12-month Zacks Consensus EPS estimate:

12 Month EPS

Current-Quarter Estimate Revisions

For the current quarter, the company is expected to earn $1.97 per share, which is a change of -19.59% from the year-ago reported number.

Over the last 30 days, two estimates have moved higher for American Financial compared to no negative revisions. As a result, the Zacks Consensus Estimate has increased 35.52%.

Current-Year Estimate Revisions

For the full year, the earnings estimate of $9.18 per share represents a change of +8.77% from the year-ago number.

In terms of estimate revisions, the trend for the current year also appears quite encouraging for American Financial. Over the past month, two estimates have moved higher compared to no negative revisions, helping the consensus estimate increase 22.33%.

Favorable Zacks Rank

Thanks to promising estimate revisions, American Financial currently carries a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). The Zacks Rank is a tried-and-tested rating tool that helps investors effectively harness the power of earnings estimate revisions and make the right investment decision. You can see the complete list of today's Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

Our research shows that stocks with Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) and 2 (Buy) significantly outperform the S&P 500.

Bottom Line

While strong estimate revisions for American Financial have attracted decent investments and pushed the stock 8.6% higher over the past four weeks, further upside may still be left in the stock. So, you may consider adding it to your portfolio right away.


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