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RLI Estimates Q3 Catastrophe Loss Between $30M and $35M

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RLI Corporation (RLI - Free Report) estimates third-quarter catastrophe loss of $30-$35 million pre-tax. The loss is expected to primarily stem from Hurricane Ida as well as other catastrophes.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter earnings is currently pegged at 66 cents per share, which indicates an improvement of 57.2% from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure. We expect estimates to move south once analysts start incorporating loss estimates into their numbers.

AIR Worldwide, a modeling firm, projects total insured losses from Hurricane Ida in the range of $20-$30 billion as reported in Insurance Journal. The Allstate Corporation (ALL - Free Report) estimates net losses of $631 million pretax ($498 million after-tax), reflecting anticipated reinsurance recoveries from Hurricane Ida.  The Hanover Insurance Group (THG - Free Report) estimates third-quarter catastrophe loss of $150-$165 million pre-tax or $119-$130 million after taxes, primarily stemming from Hurricane Ida. Horace Mann Educators Corporation (HMN - Free Report) estimates $35 million to $40 million, pretax, catastrophe loss, most notably driven by the effects of Hurricane Ida.

Being a property and casualty insurer, RLI is exposed to claims stemming from catastrophes that affect operations and financial condition. Yet, the company is one of the industry’s most profitable P&C writers with an impressive track record of delivering 25 consecutive years of underwriting profitability.

RLI’s combined ratio, which reflects its underwriting profitability, has been exemplary. The company has maintained a combined ratio below 100 for 25 consecutive years, averaging 88.3 and below 90 for 13 straight years. This solid track record of maintaining the combined ratio at favorable levels even in the toughest operating environment reflects the company’s superior underwriting discipline. In the first half of 2021, combined ratio improved 440 basis points (bps) year over year to 85.8.

In its effort to boost underwriting results, RLI has decided to drop the underperforming products from its property business. It also maintains significant reinsurance protection against large losses. Also, the company believes catastrophes along with a tighter reinsurance market will continue to drive further hardening of rates.

Shares of this Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) specialty property-casualty (P&C) underwriter have rallied 18.7% year over year compared with the industry’s increase of 22.3%. The broad range of product offerings, focus on specialty insurance lines and impressive record of underwriting profits should help shares retain the momentum.

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