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Progressive (PGR) to Report Q3 Earnings: What's in Store?

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The Progressive Corporation (PGR - Free Report) is slated to report third-quarter 2021 results on Oct 14 before market open. The company delivered an earnings surprise of 29.06% in the last reported quarter.

Factors to Consider    

Improved rates, solid policies in force and higher retention in its strong performing Vehicle and Property businesses are likely to have driven premiums in the third quarter of 2021. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for premiums earned is pegged at $12.3 billion, up 11.8%.

Focus on segmentation and risk selection might have aided policies in force. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for personal lines policies in force is pegged at 23.1 million, indicating an increase of 8.7% from the year-ago reported figure.

A higher invested asset base is likely to have aided investment income, partly weighed on by near-zero interest rate. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the metric is pegged at $210 million.

Improved premiums, increase in service revenues and fees as well as other revenues are likely to have fueled revenues. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter revenues stands at $12.4 billion, suggesting 19.1% year-over-year growth.

Progressive is a leading auto insurer in the United States and has one of the largest auto insurance groups. It is also the largest seller of motorcycle policies, the market leader in commercial auto insurance and one of the top 15 homeowners carriers based on premiums written.  Its personal auto business is likely to have benefited from its focus on marketing and competitive product offerings as well as its strong market presence.

However, its underwriting profitability is likely to have been weighed down by the catastrophe loss stemming from Hurricane Ida.

Expenses might have risen on higher loss and loss-adjustment expenses, and policy acquisition costs plus other underwriting expenses. The consensus estimate for loss and loss adjustment expenses ratio is pegged at 78.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings is pegged at 33 cents, indicating a 82.4% decrease from the year-ago quarter number.

What the Zacks Model Says

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Progressive this time around. This is because a stock needs to have the right combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold). That is not the case here.

Earnings ESP: Progressive has an Earnings ESP of -34.82%. This is because the Most Accurate Estimate of 21 cents is pegged lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 33 cents. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

The Progressive Corporation Price and EPS Surprise

Zacks Rank: Progressive currently carries a Zacks Rank of 3.

Stocks to Consider

Some insurance stocks with the right combination of elements to come up with an earnings beat this time around are:

ProAssurance Corporation (PRA - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +4.92% and a Zacks Rank of 1. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Root, Inc. (ROOT - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +5.34% and a Zacks Rank #3.

W.R. Corporation (WRB - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +1.52% and a Zacks Rank of 3.