People's United Financial, Inc.  is scheduled to report third-quarter 2021 results on Oct 21, after market close. While its revenues are expected to have declined year over year, earnings are anticipated to have improved.

People's United’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in second-quarter 2021. Results reflect improved fee revenues and controlled expenses. A recovery in the provision for credit losses and a strong capital position also supported the company. However, lower revenues and reduced loans were headwinds.

In the trailing four quarters, the company surpassed estimates on all four occasions, the average being 16.9%.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for its earnings for the to-be-reported quarter is pegged at 35 cents, which suggests a rise of 2.9% from the year-ago reported number. However, the consensus estimate for revenues of $482.4 million indicates a 2.1% year-over-year decline.

Key Factors and Estimates

Fee Income: Ongoing economic recovery and governmental aid are likely to have supported deposits and bank service charges for People’s United. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for bank service charges of $25.6 million suggests a 4.3% year-over-year rise.

Higher client activities and continued volatility in the markets, especially in September, are likely to have buoyed the company’s investment management fees. The Zacks Consensus Estimate of $21.7 million for investment management fees implies a 15.2% year-over-year improvement.

Likewise, the consensus estimate of $14.3 million for commercial lending fees indicates a rise of 12.2% from the prior-year quarter.

However, a decline in the operating lease income is expected to have hindered overall fee income growth. The consensus estimate for a total non-interest income of $100 million suggests a marginal year-over-year decline.

Loan Growth: The lending scenario in the third quarter improved moderately per the Fed’s latest data. This was backed by businesses reopening, corporate confidence rising and increasing economic growth. However, these were partially offset by strong consumer balance sheets, and persistently elevated payment rates and pay downs.

Also, the commercial and industrial loan portfolio remained weak as the low-interest rate environment has made borrowing through other avenues like capital markets more attractive. With the majority of People's United's loan portfolio (77%) comprising commercial and industrial lending as well as commercial real estate lending and equipment financing, this is likely to have been dragging the company. Nonetheless, given the strength in the commercial real estate space, commercial real estate lending improved in the third quarter and is likely to have offered some support to the company’s loan growth.

Net Interest Income (NII): The stimulus-driven liquidity injected in the banking system continued to support deposit balance in the third quarter. This along with moderate loan growth and the steepening of the yield curve is expected to have aided People's United’s NII in the to-be-reported quarter.

However, the low interest rate environment, excess deposits on bank balance sheets invested in low-yield investments and lower yields on the securities portfolio are likely to have kept the net interest margin (NIM) under pressure.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate of $56.1 billion for quarterly average earning assets indicates 4.5% year-over-year growth.

The consensus estimate of $382 million for NII suggests a 2.3% fall from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure. Similarly, the consensus mark for NIM is pegged at 2.72%, indicating a decline from the year-ago reported figure of 2.97%.

Higher Expenses: People’s United’s inorganic growth strategies are likely to have led to higher merger-related costs. Also, with the expansion of operations, compensation and benefits might have risen.For the quarter under review, the efficiency ratio is expected to be 63%, up from the prior quarter’s reported 54%. A rise in the efficiency ratio indicates lower profitability.

Earnings Whispers

Our quantitative model shows that People’s United does not have the right combination of the two key ingredients — a positive Earnings ESP and Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or higher — for increasing the odds of an earnings beat this time.

You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Earnings ESP: The Earnings ESP for People’s United is +10.15%.

Zacks Rank: People’s United currently carries a Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell).

Stocks to Consider

Here are some finance stocks that you may want to consider as these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat in their upcoming releases, per our model.

Capital One Financial Corporation (COF Quick QuoteCOF - Free Report) is slated to report quarterly earnings on Oct 26. The company, with a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy) at present, has an Earnings ESP of +5.18%.You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

BankUnited, Inc. (BKU Quick QuoteBKU - Free Report) is scheduled to release third-quarter results on Oct 21. The company currently has a Zacks Rank #3 and an Earnings ESP of +1.90%.

The Earnings ESP for KeyCorp (KEY Quick QuoteKEY - Free Report) is +0.56%. This Zacks #3 Ranked company is scheduled to report quarterly numbers on Oct 21.