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What's in the Cards for Mastercard's (MA) Earnings in Q3?

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Mastercard Inc. (MA - Free Report) is scheduled to release third-quarter 2021 results on Oct 28, before the market opens.

Q3 Earnings & Revenue Expectations

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Mastercard’s earnings of $2.18 per share indicates a 36.25% upside from the prior-year period’s reported number. The consensus estimate for sales of $4.95 billion suggests a 29.12% increase from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure.

Factors Likely to Impact Q3 Results

The world’s second-largest electronic payment network draws revenues as a set percentage of the total transaction value everytime a customer’s debit/credit card is used for making payments. Thus, higher spending on its cards means more revenues in the form of transaction processing fees.
Last year, the company suffered a revenue decline as people curtailed their spending on non-discretionary purchases and stopped travelling in the face of the pandemic. Even though the surge in e-commerce rescued the company, broad-based spending was lower.

Consumer spending, however, has been better this year so far amid easing of restrictions owing to vaccination rollout, pent-up demand, higher personal savings and a bullish consumer sentiment. Evidently, retail sales have been trending higher of late and are expected to reflect on the upcoming quarterly results.

Mastercard is one of the most widely used cards by shoppers when making payments, both offline and online, given its global network, brand name, security, flexibility and reliability. So as people make more payments via the company’s co-branded cards, the quarter is likely to have witnessed higher Switched transactions, which include transactions it authorized, cleared and settled.

The company’s cross-border revenues, which carry higher margins, were dragged down by the suspension of international travel. With the reopening of economies, cross-border travel is picking up but at a very slow pace. Thus, cross-border revenues are expected to have fared better in the to-be-reported quarter.

Earnings Surprise History

The company boasts a pleasant earnings surprise record. Its bottom line beat estimates in three of the last four quarters (missing the mark just once), the average beat being 7.8%. This is depicted in the chart below:


Mastercard Incorporated Price and EPS Surprise

Mastercard Incorporated Price and EPS Surprise

Mastercard Incorporated price-eps-surprise | Mastercard Incorporated Quote

Here is what our quantitative model predicts:

Our proven model does not predict an earnings beat for Mastercard this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP  and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat, which is not the case here. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Earnings ESP: Mastercard has an Earnings ESP of -0.37%.

Zacks Rank: Mastercard currently has a Zacks Rank #3

Stocks to Consider

The following stocks in the payments space are predicted to surpass estimates this reporting cycle.  You can see  the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

PagSeguro Digital Ltd. (PAGS - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +74.64% and is presently Zacks #2 Ranked.

Square, Inc. (SQ - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +1.05% and a Zacks Rank of 3, presently.

American Express Co. (AXP - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +3.22% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present.