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What's in the Offing for Unum Group (UNM) in Q3 Earnings?

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Unum Group (UNM - Free Report) is slated to report third-quarter 2021 earnings results on Nov 2, after market close. The company delivered an earnings surprise of 23.01% in the last reported quarter.

Factors to Note

The Unum U.S. segment is likely to have benefited from improved sales trends, strong persistency in group lines and growth of new product lines like dental and vision. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter premium income at the Unum U.S. segment is pegged at $1.5 billion, suggesting an increase of 1.4% from the prior-year reported figure.

The company expects a slight improvement in mortality in the third quarter.

Colonial Life is likely to have been aided by an improved benefits experience and higher net investment income. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter premium income at the Colonial Life segment is pegged at $422 million, indicating an increase of 0.5% from the prior-year level. Unum estimates adjusted operating income in the low to mid-$80 million range in the third quarter.

A decline in the yield on invested assets and a decrease in the level of invested assets are likely to have weighed on net investment income. This downside is likely to have been partially offset by higher income from an alternative investment portfolio. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the same is pegged at $554 million, indicating a 9.6% decline from the prior-year quarter.

Expenses are likely to have increased due to higher benefits and change in reserves for future benefits and other expenses.

The company estimates the interest-adjusted loss ratio for LTC in the to-be-reported quarter to remain slightly favorable to the long-term assumption range as mortality and incidence trends continue to normalize following the impacts of COVID.

For Closed Disability Block, the company estimates higher miscellaneous income and favorable underlying benefit experience to drive operating income between $45 million and $55 million.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings per share is pegged at $1.17, indicating a decline of 3.31% from the year-ago reported figure.

Quantitative Model Prediction

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Unum Group this time around. The stock needs to have the right combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy), or 3 (Hold) for this to happen. This is not the case as you can see below.

Earnings ESP: It has an Earnings ESP of -1.01%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
 

Unum Group Price and EPS Surprise

Unum Group Price and EPS Surprise

Unum Group price-eps-surprise | Unum Group Quote

Zacks Rank: Unum Group currently carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell).

Stocks to Consider

Some stocks from the insurance space that have the perfect mix of elements to surpass earnings estimates in the upcoming quarterly releases are as follows:

Aflac Incorporated (AFL - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +1.44% and a Zacks Rank #2. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Trupanion (TRUP - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +6.59% and a Zacks Rank of 3, at present.

The Hartford Financial (HIG - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +5.61% and a Zacks Rank #3.