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Can American International (AIG) Q3 Earnings Deliver a Beat?

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American International Group, Inc. (AIG - Free Report) is scheduled to report third-quarter 2021 results on Nov  4, after market close.

Q3 Estimates

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings is pegged at 93 cents per share, indicating a rise of 14.81% from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure.

The consensus mark for quarterly revenues stands at $10.95 billion, suggesting a 3.51% decrease from the year-ago period’s reported number.

Factors to Note

In General Insurance, net premiums written are likely to have increased on the back of improved retention, new business and a continued improvement in insurance premium rate.

Net investment income is likely to have gone up on higher income from alternative investments and equity securities.

On the expense front, both interest expense and gross operating expenses are expected to have decreased on debt repayments and lower corporate expenses. However, underwriting profitability might have taken a hit from catastrophe losses.

Share repurchases made by the company in the period under review are likely to have provided a cushion to its bottom line.

Earnings Surprise

The company’s bottom line surpassed estimates in three of the trailing four quarters, missing the mark in the remaining one. It has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 15.09%, on average. This is depicted in the graph below:

What the Quantitative Model States

Our proven model does not predict an earnings beat for American International this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat, which is not the case here.

Earnings ESP:  American International has an Earnings ESP of -7.17%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank:  American International carries a Zacks Rank #3, currently. 

You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Peer Releases

Among the many insurance companies that already reported earnings for the third quarter, the bottom-line results at W.R.Berkley Corp. (WRB - Free Report)   Chubb Limited (CB - Free Report) and The Hartford Financial Services Group, Inc. (HIG - Free Report) beat the respective Zacks Consensus Estimate.