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What's in the Offing for Azul (AZUL) This Earnings Season?

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Azul S.A.(AZUL - Free Report) is slated to report third-quarter 2021 financial numbers on Nov 11.

Azul has a dismal earnings record. The carrier’s bottom line underperformed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in all of the last four quarters. It has a trailing four-quarter negative earnings surprise of 52.3%, on average.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the to-be-reported quarter’s bottom line is currently pegged at a loss of $1.35, which suggests a deterioration from a loss of $1.18 per share, 60 days ago.

AZUL Price and EPS Surprise

 

AZUL Price and EPS Surprise

AZUL price-eps-surprise | AZUL Quote

 

Against this backdrop, let’s discuss the factors likely to get reflected in the upcoming quarterly results.

The current scenario of rising fuel costs does not bode well for the airline and is likely to have hurt the bottom line in the third quarter.

Nevertheless, strong e-commerce growth leading to a rise in cargo revenues is likely to have driven Azul’s top-line numbers.

Both passenger revenues (which account for the bulk of the company’s top line) and load factor (percentage of seats filled with passengers) are expected to have surged, owing to rising air-travel demand post widespread vaccination programs in Brazil.

What Does the Zacks Model Say?

Our proven model does not predict an earnings beat for Azul this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of a positive surprise. But that is not the case here as elaborated below. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Earnings ESP: Azul has an Earnings ESP of +3.70%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: Azul carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell), currently.

Highlights of Q2

Azul incurred a loss (excluding $3.41 from non-recurring items) of $1.91 per share, wider than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of $1.53. In the year-ago quarter, the company reported a loss of $2.38 per share.Total revenues of $321.4 million outperformed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $302.1 million. The top line surged more than 100% year over year as air-travel demand improved, courtesy of widespread vaccination programs in Brazil.

Stocks to Consider

Investors interested in the broader Transportation  sector may also consider Copa Holdings, S.A. (CPA - Free Report) , Golar LNG Limited (GLNG - Free Report) and Diana Shipping Inc. (DSX - Free Report) . These stocks possess the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this reporting cycle.

Copa Holdings has an Earnings ESP of +25.74% and is Zacks #3 Ranked, presently. The company will release third-quarter 2021 results on Nov 17.

Golar LNG has an Earnings ESP of +75.00% and carries a Zacks Rank #2, at present. The company will release third-quarter 2021 results on Nov 9.

Diana Shipping has an Earnings ESP of +5.88% and is currently a #2 Ranked player. The company will release third-quarter 2021 results on Nov 17.
 


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