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Is a Beat in Store for BioNTech (BNTX) This Earnings Season?

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We expect BioNTech SE (BNTX - Free Report) to surpass expectations when it reports third-quarter 2021 results on Nov 9, before market opens.

The company’s earnings surprise record has been mixed so far as its earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the trailing four quarters and lagged the same on the other occasion, the average beat being 95.59%. In the last-reported quarter, BioNTech delivered an earnings surprise of 55.45%.

Shares of BioNTech have skyrocketed 165.8% so far this year against the industry’s decrease of 12.1%.

Zacks Investment ResearchImage Source: Zacks Investment Research

Let’s see how things are shaping up for the quarter to be reported.

Factors at Play

BioNTech and partner Pfizer’s (PFE - Free Report) mRNA-based COVID-19 vaccine, Comirnaty, was the first vaccine to be granted full approval by the FDA to prevent COVID-19 in individuals 16 years of age and older. The vaccine is also approved for emergency use in several countries and has become a key contributor to BioNTech’s top line.

Vaccine rollouts are in full swing, and more than one billion doses have already been supplied to various countries across the globe. BioNTech’s sales in the third quarter are likely to have been driven by Comirnaty.

Last month, the FDA granted emergency use authorization (“EUA”) to the COVID-19 vaccine for children five through 11 years of age, making it the first vaccine to be authorized in the United States for this age group. Also during the month, BioNTech/Pfizer announced encouraging top-line data from a phase III study evaluating the efficacy and safety of the booster dose of Comirnaty in individuals 16 years of age and older. Comirnaty’s booster dose achieved a relative vaccine efficacy of 95.6% compared with those who did not receive a booster.

In September, the FDA granted EUA to a booster or third dose of Comirnaty for individuals 65 years and older and individuals 18 through 64 years of age in high-risk groups.

We expect management to provide more updates on Comirnaty at the upcoming earnings call.

This apart, BioNTech’s pipeline boasts of several candidates, such as BNT111, the company’s mRNA-based FixVac cancer vaccine program, and BNT113, BNT122, BNT211 and BNT311, to name a few that are in early- to mid-stage studies for various oncological indications. Updates on the above-mentioned programs are expected during the upcoming earnings call.

Developmental activities related to the company’s pipeline candidates are likely to have escalated operating expenses in the to-be-reported quarter.

Why a Likely Positive Surprise?

Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for BioNTech this season. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they're reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Earnings ESP: BioNTech has an Earnings ESP of +3.90% as the Zacks Consensus Estimate stands at $11.79 per share while the Most Accurate Estimate is pegged at $12.25 per share.

Zacks Rank: BioNTech has a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

BioNTech SE Sponsored ADR Price and EPS Surprise

BioNTech SE Sponsored ADR Price and EPS Surprise

BioNTech SE Sponsored ADR price-eps-surprise | BioNTech SE Sponsored ADR Quote

Stocks to Consider

Here are a few stocks you may want to consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this reporting cycle:

Gemini Therapeutics, Inc. (GMTX - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +17.61% and carries a Zacks Rank #2, currently.

Ascendis Pharma A/S (ASND - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +11.27% and carries a Zacks Rank #3 at present. The company is scheduled to report earnings on Nov 10.