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Travelers (TRV) Benefits From Solid Segmental Performance

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The Travelers Companies, Inc. (TRV - Free Report) remains well poised for growth on healthy top-line growth, improved underlying margins in commercial businesses, solid cash flows and a robust balance sheet.

Growth Projections

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Travelers’ 2022 earnings per share is pegged at $12.61, indicating a year-over-year increase of 0.2%.

Estimate Revision

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2022 has moved 0.1% north in the past seven days. This should instill investors' confidence in the stock.

Earnings Surprise History

Travelers has a decent earnings surprise history. It beat estimates in each of the last four quarters, with the average being 38%.

Zacks Rank & Price Performance

Travelers currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). In the past year, the stock has rallied 13.8% compared with the industry’s increase of 22%.

Zacks Investment ResearchImage Source: Zacks Investment Research

Style Score

Travelers has a favorable VGM Score of B. VGM Score helps to identify stocks with the most attractive value, best growth and the most promising momentum.

Return on Equity (ROE)

Travelers’s ROE for the trailing 12 months is 12.1%, better than the industry average of 5.6%, reflecting the company’s efficiency in utilizing shareholders’ fund. 

Business Tailwinds

Premiums in the Business Insurance segment should benefit from a strong renewal rate and exposure levels as well as high retention.

In commercial businesses of the Business Insurance segment, written pricing continues to outpace the estimated loss trend, which is likely to benefit margins. Given the social inflation, the severity of weather-related loss activity as well as the low-interest rate environment, TRV expects the pricing environment to remain strong.

Riding on higher net-earned premium, a significantly improved underlying underwriting margin and favorable prior-year reserve development, the Bond & Specialty segment continues to deliver better returns and growth.

The underlying combined ratio is likely to improve on lower pandemic-related loss activity, earned pricing that exceeded loss cost trends and a lower expense ratio.

Premium growth in the Personal Insurance segment continues to gain from strong retention and growth in new business. Policies in force in both auto and homeowners reached record levels in the third quarter.

These tailwinds will likely boost revenue growth in the years to come. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Travelers’ 2022 revenues is pegged at $35.82 billion, indicating a year-over-year increase of nearly 4.1%.

The property and casualty insurer guided fixed income net investment income, including earnings from short-term securities, in the range of $425 million to $435 million per quarter after-tax. For 2022, the insurer expects the metric to be in the range of $420 million to $430 million per quarter.

Travelers boasts a healthy balance sheet along with an impressive solvency level. The debt-to-capital ratio remained within the target range and there is no maturing long-term debt over the next five years. The capital ratios were better than the target levels and it maintains liquidity of around $2 billion.

Travelers has paid cash dividends without interruption for 150 years and its current dividend yield is 2.3%. It has raised its dividend at an eight-year (2014-2021) CAGR of 7.3%.

Stocks to Consider

Some better-ranked stocks from the property and casualty insurance market are Fidelity National Financial (FNF - Free Report) , Hallmark Financial Services (HALL - Free Report) and ProAssurance (PRA - Free Report) , each sporting a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Fidelity National’s earnings surpassed estimates in each of the last four quarters, the average beat being 38.1%. In the past year, FNF has gained 42%.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Fidelity National’s 2022 earnings has moved 4.6% north in the past 60 days.

The bottom line of Hallmark Financial surpassed estimates in two of the last four quarters and missed the same in the other two, the average being 53.6%.

In the past year, Hallmark Financial has rallied 25.6%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2022 earnings has moved 60% north in the past 60 days.

ProAssurance’s earnings surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the last four quarters, the average beat being 233.3%. In the past year, PRA has gained 20.7%.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for ProAssurance’s 2022 earnings has moved 5.3% north in the past 60 days.

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