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Will Rising Expenses Dent Old Dominion's (ODFL) Q4 Earnings?

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Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. (ODFL - Free Report) is scheduled to report fourth-quarter 2021 results on Feb 2, before market open.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the company’s fourth-quarter earnings has remained flat in the past 60 days at $2.24.  The company has an impressive earnings history, having outperformed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in all of the past four quarters. It has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 5.20%, on average.

Let’s see how things are shaping up for this earnings season.

Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

 

Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. Quote

 

A gradual recovery in the freight environment is anticipated to have aided Old Dominion’s fourth-quarter performance. This is expected to be reflected in less than truckload (LTL) revenue per hundredweight. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter LTL revenue per hundredweight suggests a rise of 15.5% from the year-ago quarter’s reported number and a 1.4% improvement from third-quarter 2021’s reported figure. The anticipated improvement in LTL revenue per hundredweight is likely to get reflected in revenues from LTL services, the company’s major revenue-generating segment. Per the consensus mark, LTL tonnage per day is likely to have surged 12.5% from the year-ago-quarter’s reported figure.

Improvement in operating ratio (operating expenses, as a percentage of revenues) is likely to get reflected in the fourth-quarter bottom line (driven by higher revenues).  The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the operating ratio is pegged at 75% for the quarter to be reported, indicating a rise from 76% reported in fourth-quarter 2020. Lower the value of this key measure of efficiency, the better.

Higher operating expenses (stemming from higher costs pertaining to fuel costs, salaries, wages and benefits as well as increased operating supplies and expenses) and capital expenditures are likely to have hurt the company’s bottom line.

What Does the Zacks Model Say?

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Old Dominion this time around. This is because a stock needs to have a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) for this to happen, which is not the case here. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Earnings ESP: Old Dominion has an Earnings ESP of -0.51%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: Old Dominion carries a Zacks Rank #3 currently.

Highlights of Q3 Earnings

Old Dominion’s third-quarter 2021 earnings per share of $2.47 outpaced the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 10 cents. The bottom line surged 44.4% year over year. Revenues of $1400 million surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1,360.3 million and increased 32.3% year over year.

Stocks to Consider

Investors interested in the broader Transportation sector may consider C.H. Robinson Worldwide (CHRW - Free Report) , Werner Enterprises (WERN - Free Report) and Air Lease Corporation (AL - Free Report) , as these stocks possess the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this reporting cycle.

C.H. Robinson currently has an Earnings ESP of +4.79% and a Zacks Rank #3. C.H. Robinson will report fourth-quarter results on Feb 2.

C.H. Robinson’s fourth-quarter results are likely to be aided by higher revenues owing to the improving freight market conditions in the United States. CHRW has gained 15.3% in a year’s time.

Werner has an Earnings ESP of +0.35% and is currently a #3 Ranked player. Werner will release fourth-quarter 2021 results on Feb 3.

Werner’s move to expand its final-mile capabilities across the northeast United States and the midwest through the acquisition of NEHDS Logistics is encouraging. The transaction enables Werner to offer expanded transportation solutions for the delivery of big and bulky products.

Air Lease has an Earnings ESP of +1.69% and is currently a #3 Ranked player. Air Lease will release fourth-quarter 2021 results on Feb 17.

We are impressed by Air Lease’s endeavors to reward shareholders. The company has an impressive dividend payment history. In November, the company’s board approved a dividend hike of approximately 15.6% to 18.5 cents per share (annually: 74 cents).

Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.
 

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