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What's in the Offing for Navios Maritime's (NMM) Q4 Earnings?

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Navios Maritime Partners L.P. (NMM - Free Report) is scheduled to release fourth-quarter 2021 earnings on Feb 17, before market open.

Navios Maritime has an impressive track record with respect to the bottom line. Its earnings outperformed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the last four quarters. NMM reported lower-than-expected earnings per share for the remaining quarter and has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 37.6%, on average.


The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter earnings has been revised 3.8% downward over the past 60 days.

Against this backdrop, let’s discuss the factors that might have impacted Navios Maritime’s performance in the December quarter.

We expect Navios Maritime’s fourth-quarter performance to have been dented by the Omicron variant-induced operational disruptions. Navios Maritime’s fourth-quarter bottom-line performance is likely to have been hurt by escalated time charter and voyage expenses.

With oil price moving north, fuel costs are shooting up. This, in turn, is likely to have elevated NMM’s operating costs in the to-be-reported quarter.

On a brighter note, we expect Navios Maritime’s fourth-quarter performance to have been boosted by an anticipated increase in the time charter equivalent rate (TCE) from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure.

TCE refers to voyage and time charter revenues less voyage expenses during a time period divided by the number of available days. Time charter and voyage revenues are likely to have inched up in the December quarter, primarily driven by an expanded fleet size.

What Does the Zacks Model Say?

Our proven model does not predicts an earnings beat for Navios Maritime this time around. The combination of a positive  Earnings ESP  and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat, which is not the case here as elaborated below. You can see  the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Earnings ESP: Navios Maritime has an earnings ESP of 0.00% as the Most Accurate Estimate is in line with the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $5.07. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: Navios Maritime currently carries a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell).

Highlights of Q3 Earnings

Navios Maritime’s third-quarter earnings (excluding $1.18 from non-recurring items) of $4.77 per share surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.44. Total revenues of $228 million increased 253.4% year over year and also surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $216.2 million.

Stocks to Consider

Investors interested in the broader Transportation sector may consider Eagle Bulk Shipping Inc. (EGLE - Free Report) , Atlas Air Worldwide (AAWW - Free Report)  and Gol Linhas Aereas Inteligentes (GOL - Free Report) as these stocks possess the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this reporting cycle.

Eagle Bulk currently has an Earnings ESP of +25.88% and a Zacks Rank #3. EGLE will report fourth-quarter results on Mar 3.

Eagle Bulk’s shares have gained 79.7% in a year. EGLE has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 33% (one miss and three beats), on average. Strong trading volumes are likely to have boosted EGLE’s performance in the to-be-reported quarter.

Atlas Air currently has an Earnings ESP of +3.11% and a Zacks Rank of 1. AAWW will report fourth-quarter results on Feb 17.

Strong demand for air freight amid the coronavirus pandemic supports Atlas Air. The boom in e-commerce trends amid the current scenario is a catalyst. These tailwinds are expected to have aided AAWW’s fourth-quarter performance.

Gol Linhas has an Earnings ESP of +8.29% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present. GOL will release fourth-quarter earnings numbers on Mar 11.

Improved domestic air-travel demand and the resumption of international operations are expected to have driven Gol Linhas’ fourth-quarter performance.

Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.