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Kohl's (KSS) Lined Up for Q4 Earnings: Factors to Consider

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Kohl's Corporation (KSS - Free Report) is likely to register top-line growth when it reports fourth-quarter fiscal 2021 results on Mar 1. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues is pegged at $6,782 million, suggesting a rise of 10.3% from the figure reported in the prior-year quarter.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Kohl's quarterly earnings has moved 3 cents down in the past seven days to $2.10 per share. The projection indicates a drop of 5.4% from earnings of $2.22 per share reported in the year-ago quarter.

The branded apparel, footwear, accessories, beauty and home products retailer’s bottom line outpaced the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 139.1% in the last reported quarter.

Key Factors to Note

Kohl’s is benefiting from its strategic framework that focuses on four key areas, such as driving top-line growth, expanding operating margin, implementing disciplined capital management and undertaking an agile accountable and inclusive culture. KSS’ strategic efforts to solidify its omni-channel business have been contributing to its performance for a while. In this regard, KSS’ buy online, pickup in store, buy online ship to store, curbside pickup and amazon returns initiatives are commendable. Additionally, KSS’ solid brand portfolio and partnerships are diving growth. Such factors are likely to have boosted the top-line performance in the to-be-reported quarter.

On its last-quarter earnings call, management had projected fourth-quarter sales increase in the low double-digit percent range from the fiscal 2020 level and the operating margin of 6.6%, implying an expansion of 140 basis points from the last fiscal-year level. For fiscal 2021, management had projected net sales growth in the mid-20s’ percentage range. It forecast an operating margin of 8.4-8.5% and adjusted earnings per share of $7.10-$7.30 for the said full fiscal.

On the flip side, Kohl’s has been battling supply-chain headwinds and increased SG&A expenses for a while. KSS is witnessing a higher wage pressure across its stores and distribution centers. It is also grappling with higher transportation costs and freight pressures. These headwinds might have weighed on the profitability in the quarter under review. The guidance for the fiscal fourth quarter includes incremental headwinds of above 350 basis points from the same period of 2019. These consist of increased digital penetration, freight and holiday surcharges, and higher wages and incentives.

What the Zacks Model Unveils

Our proven model doesn’t conclusively predict an earnings beat for Kohl’s this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. But that’s not the case here. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Although Kohl’s has a Zacks Rank #3, its Earnings ESP of -2.14% leaves surprise prediction inconclusive.

Stocks With a Favorable Combination

Here are a few companies worth considering from the same sector as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this season:

Casey's General Stores (CASY - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +5.19% and a Zacks Rank of 3. CASY is anticipated to register a top-line increase when it reports third-quarter fiscal 2022 results. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Casey's General Stores’ revenues is pegged at $3,061 million, indicating a rise of 52.3% from the figure reported in the prior-year quarter. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Casey's General Stores’ quarterly earnings is pegged at $1.45 per share, suggesting an improvement of 39.4% from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure. CASY delivered an earnings beat of 20.1%, on average, in the trailing four quarters.

American Eagle Outfitters (AEO - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +0.69% and a Zacks Rank #3. AEO is likely to register a bottom-line decrease when it reports fourth-quarter fiscal 2021 numbers. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly earnings per share of 36 cents suggests a fall of 7.7% from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure.

American Eagle Outfitters’ top line is expected to rise from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues is pegged at $1,521 million, which indicates an improvement of 17.6% from the figure reported in the prior-year quarter. AEO has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 12.7%, on average.

Costco (COST - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +0.75% and is Zacks #3 Ranked. COST is likely to register an increase in the bottom line when it reports second-quarter fiscal 2022 numbers. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly earnings per share of $2.67 suggests an increase of 24.8% from the year-ago period’s reported number.

Costco’s top line is expected to increase from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues is pegged at $51.1 billion, which suggests growth of 14% from the prior-year quarter’s reported number. COST has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 8.3%, on average.

Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.

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