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Can Earthstone (ESTE) Q4 Earnings Maintain Positive Surprise?

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Earthstone Energy, Inc. is set to release fourth-quarter results on Mar 10. The current Zacks Consensus Estimate for the to-be-reported quarter is a profit of 39 cents per share on revenues of $108.5 million.

Let’s delve into the factors that might have influenced the oil and gas producer’s performance in the December quarter. But it’s worth taking a look at Earthstone’s previous-quarter release first.

Highlights of Q3 Earnings & Surprise History

In the last-reported quarter, The Woodlands, TX-based upstream player beat the consensus mark on higher oil price realizations. Earthstone Energy had reported adjusted earnings per share of 35 cents, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 24 cents. Revenues of $110.4 million generated by the firm had also come in above the consensus mark by 25.3%.

ESTE topped the Zacks Consensus Estimate by an average of 93.2% in the trailing four quarters. This is depicted in the graph below:
 

Earthstone Energy, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

Earthstone Energy, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

Earthstone Energy, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Earthstone Energy, Inc. Quote

Trend in Estimate Revision

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the fourth-quarter bottom line has remained the same in the past seven days. The estimated figure indicates a 333.3% surge year over year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues, meanwhile, suggests a 195.7% increase from the year-ago period.

Factors to Consider

Earthstone Energy is expected to have benefited from the surge in oil and natural gas realizations. As a reflection of this price boost, the respective Zacks Consensus Estimate for the fourth-quarter average sales price for crude and natural gas is pegged at $75 per barrel and $4.36 per thousand cubic feet, up significantly from a year earlier when the company had fetched $41.43 and $1.65. The year-over-year improvement in realizations has most likely buoyed Earthstone Energy’s revenues and cash flows.

The company is also expected to have reaped the reward of higher production during the quarter. ESTE continues to churn out an impressive output from its assets in the Midland basin of west Texas and the Eagle Ford trend of south Texas. The company focuses on growth through a combination of acquisitions and active drilling. Consequently, the consensus mark for Earthstone Energy’s average daily Q4 volume is pegged at 29,606 barrels of oil equivalent (Boe), essentially doubling from the prior-year quarter’s level of 14,809 Boe.

On a somewhat bearish note, the increase in Earthstone Energy’s costs might have dented the company’s to-be-reported bottom-line numbers. ESTE’s total costs and expenses in the third quarter increased around 23% year over year to $55.8 million. The upward cost trajectory is likely to have continued in the fourth quarter due to cost inflation and elevated lease operating expenses.

What Does Our Model Say?

The proven Zacks model does not conclusively predict that Earthstone is likely to beat fourth-quarter estimates. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of beating estimates. But that’s not the case here.

You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Earnings ESP: ESTE has an Earnings ESP of 0.00%. This is because the Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate are pegged at 39 cents per share each.

Zacks Rank: Earthstone currently carries a Zacks Rank #3.

Stocks to Consider

Here are some firms that you may want to consider on the basis of our model:

Casey’s General Stores, Inc. (CASY - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +5.19% and a Zacks Rank #2. The firm is scheduled to release earnings on Mar 8.

You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

CASY beat earnings estimates in three of the last four quarters — the earnings surprise being 20.1%, on average. Casey’s General Stores has lost around 5.1% in a year.

Akoya Biosciences, Inc. (AKYA - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +3.23% and a Zacks Rank #3. The firm is scheduled to release earnings on Mar 14.

AKYA is valued at around $374 million. For 2022, Akoya Biosciences has a projected earnings growth rate of 62.1%. AKYA has gained some 61.4% in a year.

Amryt Pharma plc has an Earnings ESP of +33.33% and a Zacks Rank #3. The firm is scheduled to release earnings on Mar 9.

AMYT topped the Zacks Consensus Estimate in two of the trailing four quarters, with the average beat being 61.1%, including a 66.7% beat in the last reported quarter. Amryt Pharma has lost around 53% in a year.

Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.


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