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What's in the Offing for Altria Group (MO) in Q1 Earnings?

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Altria Group, Inc. (MO - Free Report) is likely to witness a year-over-year decline in its top line when it reports first-quarter 2022 earnings on Apr 28. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at $4,804 million, suggesting a decline of 1.6% from the prior-year quarter’s reported figure.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings has dropped by a penny over the past 30 days to $1.09 per share. This indicates a rise of 1.9% from the figure reported in the prior-year period. Altria has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 1.2%, on average. This tobacco giant’s earnings per share (EPS) came in line with the consensus estimate in the last reported quarter.

Altria Group, Inc. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

Altria Group, Inc. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

Altria Group, Inc. price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | Altria Group, Inc. Quote

Key Factors to Consider

Altria has been witnessing soft cigarette volumes. Cigarette shipment volumes, in general, are being affected by anti-tobacco campaigns and increased consumer awareness regarding the harmful impacts of tobacco consumption. Regulatory hurdles are also a vital factor limiting the marketing of cigarettes, thereby adversely impacting its sales volume. Apart from this, on its last earnings call, MO stated that it continues to assess the impacts of any supply-chain or distribution-related disruptions.

That said, Altria’s strong pricing has been acting as an upside. Though higher pricing might lead to a possible decline in cigarette consumption, it is seen that smokers tend to absorb price increases due to the addictive quality of cigarettes. Also, a focus on oral tobacco products has been working well for the company, given consumers’ rising inclination toward this category. Altria (through its subsidiary – Helix Innovations) has full global ownership of on! – a popular tobacco-derived nicotine (TDN) pouch product. Management believes that on! is a worthwhile addition to Altria’s smokeless portfolio as oral TDN products are gaining popularity in the United States due to their low-risk claims. Management has been expanding the manufacturing capacity and the commercial availability of the product.

However, on Nov 29, 2021, the importation ban and cease-and-desist orders forced by the International Trade Commission on the IQOS device, Marlboro HeatSticks and infringing components went into effect. On its fourth-quarter earnings call, MO had stated that it does not expect PM USA to have access to IQOS devices or Marlboro HeatSticks in 2022.

Apart from this, management’s bottom-line view for 2022 takes into account planned investments associated with costs to improve the digital consumer engagement system, enhanced smoke-free products research and development and regulatory preparation expenses and marketplace activities to support the company’s smoke-free products. The view also includes anticipation of the inflation of Master Settlement Agreement expenses and direct material costs.

What the Zacks Model Unveils

Our proven model doesn’t conclusively predict an earnings beat for Altria Group this time. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat, which is not the case here.

Altria currently has a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell) and an Earnings ESP of +0.61%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Stocks With the Favorable Combination

Here are some companies that you may want to consider as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat in the to-be-reported quarter.

Hershey (HSY - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +1.84% and a Zacks Rank #2. It is anticipated to register a top and bottom-line increase when it reports first-quarter 2022 results. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Hershey’s revenues is pegged at $2,482 million, indicating growth of 8.1% from the figure reported in the prior-year quarter. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Hershey’s quarterly earnings is pegged at $2.10 per share, suggesting a rise of 9.4% from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure. HSY delivered an earnings beat of 4.3%, on average, in the trailing four quarters.

Inter Parfums (IPAR - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +5.60% and a Zacks Rank #2. The company is expected to register top-line growth when it reports first-quarter 2022 results. The consensus mark for Inter Parfums’ revenues is pegged at $219.4 million, indicating a rise of 10.5% from the year-ago quarter.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Inter Parfums’ bottom line stands at 83 cents per share, which suggests a decline of 4.6% from the year-ago period’s reported figure. IPAR has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 46.7%, on average.

Church & Dwight Co., Inc. (CHD - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +2.69% and a Zacks Rank #3. The company is expected to register top-line growth when it reports first-quarter 2022 results. The consensus mark for Church & Dwight’s revenues is pegged at $1,287 billion, indicating an increase of 3.6% from the year-ago quarter.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Church & Dwight’s quarterly EPS of 76 cents suggests a decline of 8.4% from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure. CHD has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 8.8%, on average.

Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.

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