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Will Program Headwinds Hurt Leidos' (LDOS) Q1 Earnings?

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Leidos Holdings, Inc.(LDOS - Free Report) is slated to report first-quarter 2022 results on May 3 before market open. 

Leidos Holdings has a four-quarter earnings surprise of 5.73%, on average. Its first-quarter top line is likely to have benefited from the ramp-up in certain contracts and impressive awards, partially offset by some program headwinds.

Defense Solutions

A ramp-up in the programs of the Navy Next Generation Enterprise Network Recompete (NGEN-R) Service Management, Integration and Transport contract may have continued to bolster revenues of the Defense Solution segment.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Defense Solutions’ first-quarter revenues, pegged at $2,079.1 million, suggests an improvement of 6.2% from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure.

Civil

Increased demand for programs with commercial energy providers and the transfer of a small number of programs from the Defense Solutions segment are likely to have boosted revenues from the segment in the first quarter. However, this might have been partially offset by the lower delivery of security products.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Civil’s first-quarter revenues, pegged at $813 million, suggests an improvement of 6.2% from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure.

Health

Growth in the disability examination business, with the Military and Family Life Counseling program, might have benefitted revenues in the soon-to-be-reported quarter. Increased volumes in fixed-unit price programs are also anticipated to have favorably contributed to first-quarter revenues.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Health’s first-quarter revenues, pegged at $630.7 million, suggests an increase of 6.7% from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure.

Headwinds

The Afghanistan drawdown and lower sales from the human landing system program are expected to have unfavorably contributed to the overall performance of LDOS in the first quarter. Additionally, the performance of the company may have witnessed a partial setback due to the non-inclusion of the UDS procurement program and the shifting of the dates of the RHRP transition and FENS programs.

First-Quarter Estimates

With improved revenues projected from all Leidos Holdings’ segments, one might remain optimistic about the overall top-line performance of the company, partially offset by a few headwinds as mentioned above. Also, the recent acquisition of 1901 Group and Gibbs & Cox is expected to have benefited the company’s overall top line.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter sales is pegged at $3.39 billion, indicating an increase of 2.1% from the prior-year reported figure.

A strong backlog and impressive contract awards for programs like NGEN and the hypersonic thermal protection system are expected to have aided the overall margins of the company in the first quarter. This, in turn, is likely to have contributed to LDOS’ bottom line. However, the aforementioned headwinds may have dented the overall bottom line.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter earnings is pegged at $1.49 per share, indicating a decrease of 13.9% from the prior-year reported figure.

Leidos Holdings, Inc. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

Leidos Holdings, Inc. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

Leidos Holdings, Inc. price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | Leidos Holdings, Inc. Quote

What the Zacks Model Unveils

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Leidos Holdings this time. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat. However, that is not the case here.

Leidos Holdings has an Earnings ESP of -0.09% and a Zacks Rank 3. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Stocks to Consider

Here are three defense players you may want to consider as they have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this season:

Airbus Group (EADSY - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +10.35% and a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Airbus boasts a long-term earnings growth rate of 12.4%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for EADSY’s first-quarter sales and earnings is pegged at $12.44 billion and 15 cents per share, respectively.

CAE (CAE - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +11.11% and a Zacks Rank #3. CAE delivered a four-quarter average earnings surprise of 0.72%.

The long-term earnings growth rate of CAE is pegged at 8%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CAE’s first-quarter earnings is pegged at 18 cents per share.

Spirit Aerosystems (SPR - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +9.34% and a Zacks Rank #3. It boasts a long-term earnings growth rate of 8.5%.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for SPR’s first-quarter earnings indicates an improvement of 50% from the prior-year reported figure.

Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.