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Will Operational Inefficiencies Mar Cummins' (CMI) Q1 Earnings?

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Cummins Inc. (CMI - Free Report) is slated to release first-quarter 2022 results on May 3, before the opening bell. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarter’s earnings and revenues is pegged at $3.55 per share and $6.03 billion, respectively.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Cummins’ first-quarter earnings per share has been revised downward by 7 cents in the past 30 days. The bottom-line projection implies a year-over-year decline of 12.1%. Further, the top-line projection implies a year-over-year decline of 1.1%.

Cummins posted lower-than-expected earnings in the last reported quarter amid weaker-than-anticipated contribution across all but the Distribution segment. Over the trailing four quarters, Cummins beat earnings estimates on two occasions for as many misses, with the average surprise being 0.5%.

Cummins Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

Cummins Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

Cummins Inc. price-eps-surprise | Cummins Inc. Quote

Let’s see how things have shaped up prior to first-quarter 2022 results.

Earnings Whispers

Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Cummins for the to-be-reported quarter, as it has the right combination of the two key ingredients. A combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat.

Earnings ESP: Cummins has an Earnings ESP of +2.22%. This is because the Most Accurate Estimate of $3.12 per share is pegged 8 cents higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: Cummins currently carries a Zacks Rank of 3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Factors at Play

Technology leadership, impressive product portfolio, strong geographic diversification and broad global distribution network are expected to aid Cummins’ first-quarter 2021 results. Higher year-over-year demand for Cummins’ products in North America and international markets is likely to have aided revenues during the to-be-reported quarter. Yet, high commodity, labor and logistics costs are likely to have clipped margins. Also, high capex and R&D expenses incurred by Cummins in an effort to ramp up its capabilities in fuel cell and hydrogen production technology are anticipated to have acted as a spoilsport.

Here’s a rundown of first-quarter revenue and EBITDA estimates for Cummins’ segments. 

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Cummins’ Engine segment’s quarterly net sales is pegged at $2,512 million, suggesting an increase from the year-ago quarter’s $1,895 million. However, the consensus mark for EBITDA is $328 million, implying a yearly decline of 7.3%.

For the March-end quarter, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the Distribution segment’s net sales is $1,991 million, indicating an uptick from $1,827 million generated in the comparable year-ago quarter. The same for the segment’s EBITDA is $163 million, indicating an increase from the year-ago reported figure of $160 million.

For the quarter under discussion, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for net sales from the Power System segment is $1,074 million, suggesting a jump from $612 million recorded in first-quarter 2021. The consensus mark for the segment’s EBITDA is $117 million, calling for a decrease from $126 million reported in the corresponding quarter of 2021.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1,939 million for the Components segment’s quarterly net sales calls for an increase from the year-ago quarter’s $1,724 million. The consensus estimate for the segment’s EBITDA is $342 million, which indicates a decline from $421 million recorded in first-quarter 2021.

For the New Power Segment, the consensus estimate for revenues is $46.85 million, indicating a rise from $34 million recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2021. The consensus mark for pretax loss is pegged at $65 million, indicating a deterioration from the year-ago reported loss of $51 million.

Other Stocks With Favorable Combination

Here are a few other stocks in the auto sector that are worth considering, as these too have the right combination of elements to come up with an earnings beat this time around:

Vroom (VRM - Free Report) : Vroom is an online used car seller based in New York. It has an Earnings ESP of +2.70% and a Zacks Rank #3. The company is scheduled to release first-quarter results on May 9.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Vroom’s to-be-reported quarter’s top and bottom lines is pegged at $879 million and a loss of $1.02 per share, respectively. VRM surpassed earnings estimates in three of the trailing four quarters and missed on the other occasion, with an average surprise of 1.8%.

LCI Industries (LCII - Free Report) : LCI Industries, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and supplies components for the manufacturers of recreational vehicles and adjacent industries in the United States and internationally. LCII has an Earnings ESP of +12.72% and a Zacks Rank #3. The company is scheduled to release first-quarter results on May 10.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for LCI Industries’ to-be-reported quarter’s earnings and revenues is pegged at $4.48 per share and $1.30 billion, respectively. LCII surpassed earnings estimates in three of the trailing four quarters and missed on another occasion, with an average surprise of 12.9%.

Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.


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