The Allstate Corporation ( ALL Quick Quote ALL - Free Report) is set to report first-quarter 2022 results on May 4, after the closing bell.
In the last reported quarter, this leading property-casualty insurer’s adjusted earnings per share of $2.75 beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by a penny, primarily on an uptick in earned premiums, led by National General and growth in the Allstate brand.
Increased policies in force in Allstate Protection Plans and higher performance-based investment income from private equity investment were also major positives, partially offset by escalating costs and higher non-catastrophe losses in auto and homeowners insurance.
Let’s see how things have shaped up prior to the
first-quarter earnings announcement. Trend in Estimate Revision
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter earnings per share of $2.79 has witnessed no upward revisions in the past week but two downward movements. The estimated figure suggests a decrease of 54.3% from the prior-year quarter’s reported number. The consensus estimate for first-quarter revenues of $11.6 billion indicates a 3.3% decrease from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure.
Allstate’s earnings beat estimates in three of the trailing four quarters and missed the mark once, the average surprise being 7.7%. This is depicted in the graph below.
Factors to Note
First-quarter revenues might have been supported by better premiums. The consensus mark for insurance premiums from the Property-Liability business segment indicates an upside of 4.8% from the year-ago comparable period’s reported level.
However, Allstate’s first-quarter results are likely to reflect pre-tax catastrophe losses worth $462 million. Catastrophe losses for March primarily stemmed from events bearing an estimated cost of $227 million. ALL also witnessed some favorable reserve reestimates.
The Zacks Consensus Mark for net investment income from Property-Liability unit is pegged at $570 million, indicating a decline from $673 million in the year-ago period. Also, the consensus mark for overall net investment income indicates a 20.3% decrease from the prior-year quarter’s actuals.
Moreover, expenses might have increased in the quarter under review, especially in the Property-Liability business, which might have affected the bottom line. Such factors might have contracted the bottom line from the year-ago level and made an earnings beat uncertain.
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Allstate this time around. The combination of a positive
Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat. That is not the case here, as you will see below. Earnings ESP: Allstate’s Earnings ESP is 0.00%. This is because the Most Accurate Estimate is currently pegged at $2.79 per share, in line with the Zacks Consensus Estimate.
You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our
Earnings ESP Filter. Zacks Rank: Allstate currently carries a Zacks Rank #3. Stocks to Consider
While an earnings beat looks uncertain for Allstate, here are some companies in the
Finance space that you may want to consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this time around: Armada Hoffler Properties, Inc. ( AHH Quick Quote AHH - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +2.84% and a Zacks Rank #2. You can see . the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Armada Hoffler’s bottom line for the to-be-reported quarter indicates a 7.7% rise from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure. AHH’s earnings beat estimates in each of the last four quarters, the average being 8.1%.
Bridge Investment Group Holdings Inc. ( BRDG Quick Quote BRDG - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +3.03% and is a Zacks #3 Ranked player at present.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Bridge Investment’s earnings per share of 17 cents for the to-be-reported quarter has witnessed no movement in the past week. BRDG’s earnings beat estimates twice in the last three quarters and missed the mark once, the average surprise being 35.1%.
Cigna Corporation ( CI Quick Quote CI - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +6.26% and a Zacks Rank of 2 at present.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Cigna’s bottom line for the to-be-reported quarter indicates an 8.5% increase from the corresponding quarter’s actuals. CI’s earnings beat estimates in each of the last four quarters, the average being 6%.
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