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Upstart (UPST) to Report Q1 Earnings: What's in the Offing?

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Upstart Holdings (UPST - Free Report) is slated to release first-quarter 2022 results on May 9.

For the first quarter, the company expects revenues between $295 million and $305 million. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the top line is currently pegged at $301.94 million.

The consensus mark for earnings has been unchanged at 52 cents per share over the past 30 days.

The company’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in all of the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 95.05%.

Upstart Holdings, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

Upstart Holdings, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

Upstart Holdings, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Upstart Holdings, Inc. Quote

Factors to Note

Upstart’s first-quarter performance is likely to have benefited from its strategy to operate as a multiproduct company. Strength across Upstart’s auto refi funnel and personal loan funnel might have favored the company’s performance in the to-be-reported quarter.

An increase in borrower loan demand in the auto loan section, as the requirement for automobiles increased during the pandemic period, may have contributed to the to-be-reported quarter’s performance.

Upstart’s robust performance in the prior quarters has been enabling the company to invest heavily in the development of an AI lending platform and machine learning. This, in turn, is expected to have aided Upstart’s growth in an intensely competitive industry.

The company may have gained from a growing partner base in the first quarter. In the fourth quarter of 2021, Upstart had 42 bank partners and credit unions and 150 institutional investors funding loans on the Upstart platform.

In the quarter to be reported, Upstart may have gained from the addition of seven lenders who are ready to provide loans with no minimum fico score, which is likely to have attracted more diverse customers.

However, the US economy is currently facing a down cycle with rising inflation, which may give rise to a higher credit default. Since the AI models of Upstart have not yet been tested accurately during an economic turmoil, any failure to accurately reflect a borrower’s credit risk might lead to a hampered performance.

Mounting expenses are likely to have weighed on the to-be-reported quarter’s operating income.

What Our Model Indicates

Our proven model doesn’t conclusively predict an earnings beat for Upstart this time around. Per the Zacks model, the combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. However, that is not the case here.

UPST has a Zacks Rank #3 and an Earnings ESP of 0.00%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Stocks to Consider

Here are some companies worth considering, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings in their upcoming releases:

BWX Technologies (BWXT - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +2.29% and a Zacks Rank #2. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

BWX’s shares have returned 5.7% in the year-to-date period against the Zacks Computer and Technology sector’s decline of 22.9%.

Cisco Systems (CSCO - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +0.84% and a Zacks Rank of 2.

Cisco’s shares have fallen 22% year to date.

Analog Devices (ADI - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +2.17% and a Zacks Rank #2.

Analog Devices’ shares have declined 10.7% in the year-to-date period.

Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.

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