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Here's How Casey's (CASY) is Placed Just Ahead of Q4 Earnings

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Casey's General Stores, Inc. (CASY - Free Report) is likely to register an increase in the top line when it reports fourth-quarter fiscal 2022 numbers on Jun 7, after the closing bell. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at $3,439 million, indicating an improvement of 44.6% from the prior-year reported figure.

The bottom line of this operator of convenience stores is expected to increase year over year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter earnings per share has increased 6.9% to $1.54 over the past 30 days. The figure suggests growth from earnings of $1.12 in the year-ago period.

This Ankeny, IA-based company has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 21.6%, on average. In the last reported quarter, the company’s bottom line surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by a margin of 17.9%.

Key Factors to Note

Casey's price and product optimization strategies, increased penetration of private brands, and digital engagements comprising mobile app and online ordering capabilities are commendable. The curbside pickup option and Casey’s reward program have been benefiting the overall performance. It has partnered with DoorDash and Uber Eats for delivery services. Also, the company’s self-distribution model and acquisition activities, the recent being Pilot Corporation, bode well. Evidently, these factors are likely to have favorably impacted the company’s to-be-reported quarter’s top line.

Casey’s Grocery & General Merchandise category might have contributed to the company’s fourth-quarter top-line performance. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for sales for the category is pegged at $745 million, which suggests an increase of 14.6% from the prior-year reported figure. The consensus mark indicates a jump of 3.3% in same-store sales.

Again, the company’s Prepared Food & Dispensed Beverage category may have positively impacted total revenues. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for sales for the category stands at $301 million, which indicates a jump of 14.2% from the prior-year reported figure. Also, the consensus mark suggests growth of 6.6% in same-store sales.

With the resumption of economic activities, things have started to improve. Remarkably, the Zacks Consensus Estimate suggests an increase of 19.4% in total gallons sold during the quarter under discussion. As a result, sales at the Fuel category might have risen year over year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for sales for the Fuel category is pegged at $2,378 million, which suggests a year-over-year increase of 64.6%.

In spite of the aforementioned tailwinds, concerns related to higher operating expenses cannot be ignored. Casey's witnessed an increase of 18.5% in operating expenses in the last reported quarter. The metric increased on account of operating more stores compared with the same period last year, a jump in same-store employee expenses, a rise in same-store credit card fees due to higher retail fuel prices and increased sales volume, and incentive compensation.

 

What Does the Zacks Model Unveil?

Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Casey's this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Casey's has a Zacks Rank #3 and an Earnings ESP of +0.38%.

3 More Stocks With Favorable Combination

Here are three other companies you may want to consider as our model shows that these too have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat:

Kroger (KR - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +1.65% and a Zacks Rank #2. The company is expected to register bottom-line growth when it reports first-quarter fiscal 2022 results. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly earnings per share of $1.27 suggests growth of 6.7% from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure.

Kroger’s top line is anticipated to rise year over year. The consensus mark for revenues is pegged at $43.57 billion, indicating an increase of 5.5% from the year-ago quarter. KR has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 22.1%, on average.

Fastenal Company (FAST - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +2.82% and a Zacks Rank #2. The company is likely to register an increase in the bottom line when it reports second-quarter fiscal 2022 numbers. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly earnings per share of 50 cents suggests an increase of 19.1% from the year-ago reported number.

Fastenal Company’s top line is expected to increase year over year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues is pegged at $1.78 billion, which indicates an improvement of 18.3% from the prior-year quarter. FAST has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 5%, on average.

Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +2.26% and a Zacks Rank #3. The company is likely to register an increase in the bottom line when it reports second-quarter 2022 numbers. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly earnings per share of $9.06 suggests an increase of 21.5% from the year-ago reported number.

Chipotle Mexican Grill’s top line is expected to increase year over year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues is pegged at $2.24 billion, which indicates growth of 18.6% from the prior-year quarter. CMG has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 9.3%, on average.

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