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Mohawk (MHK) Q2 Earnings to Fall on Volatile Natural Gas Prices

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Mohawk Industries, Inc. (MHK - Free Report) is scheduled to report second-quarter 2022 results on Jul 28, after market close.

In the last reported quarter, the company’s adjusted earnings topped the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 30.8% and increased 8.3% year over year. Net sales topped the consensus estimate by 4% but increased 13% from the year-ago quarter. The upside was driven by robust housing sales and remodeling activities worldwide.

MHK’s earnings surpassed expectations in all the trailing four quarters, with the average being 13.2%.

Trend in Estimate Revision

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Mohawk’s second-quarter earnings is pegged at $4.35 per share, indicating a 2.3% decline from the prior-year reported figure of $4.45. The consensus estimate for net sales is pegged at $3.2 billion, suggesting an 8.2% increase from the year-ago reported figure of $2.95 billion.

Factors to Note

MHK is expected to have registered improved sales during second-quarter 2022 owing to strong demand. New home construction, residential remodeling and improvement of the commercial space are likely to have benefited its performance in the to-be-reported quarter.

Mohawk Industries, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

Mohawk Industries, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

Mohawk Industries, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Mohawk Industries, Inc. Quote

Due to higher market demand and increased sales in residential remodeling and new construction markets, Mohawk's U.S. ceramic business has been witnessing improved customer traffic. The company expects the expansion of ceramic capacities in the second quarter and beyond. The consensus mark for revenues from the Global Ceramic unit is pegged at $1,130 million, implying an 8.7% year-over-year increase.

The Flooring NA business has also been seeing strong growth in the residential channel. Its commercial channel has been recovering and seeing more investments in new projects. The consensus estimate for the Flooring NA segment’s net sales is pegged at $1,177 million, indicating an increase of 8.9% from the year-ago reported figure.

Within Flooring ROW, the company has been witnessing strong demand in most categories and geographies. Especially, the insulation business has been experiencing strong demand backed by government incentives for energy savings. The consensus mark for revenues from Flooring ROW is pegged at $890 million, suggesting a 6.8% improvement from the year-ago quarter.

Mohawk has been witnessing inflation in most product categories, raising prices. Also, the availability of material, labor and transportation has been challenging, thereby inflating costs. Especially, tight chemical supplies are hurting the output of LVT, carpet, laminate and board panels. These inflationary pressures are likely to weigh on second-quarter bottom-line results.

During the first-quarter earnings discussion, management noted that European natural gas prices are substantially increasing energy and material costs. Also, disruption in the Ukrainian clay supplies to Western Europe is ailing the company. Therefore, European businesses are temporarily challenged. The consensus mark for Global Ceramic, Flooring NA and Flooring ROW businesses’ adjusted operating income suggests a decline of 3.6%, 4.1% and 20.7%, respectively, from a year ago period.

MHK expects second-quarter adjusted earnings (excluding restructuring charges) in the range of $4.25-$4.35 per share, indicating a decline of 4.5-2.2% from the year-ago period.

What the Zacks Model Unveils

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Mohawk this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. Unfortunately, this is not the case here. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Currently, it has a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell) and an Earnings ESP of 0.00%.

You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Stocks to Consider

Here are some stocks from the Zacks Consumer Discretionary sector that investors may consider as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat for the to-be-reported quarter:

Lennox International Inc. (LII - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +3.01% and carries a Zacks Rank #3.

The earnings of LII topped the consensus mark in three of the last four quarters but missed on one occasion, with the average surprise being 2.3%.

Watsco, Inc. (WSO - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +4.32% and holds a Zacks Rank #3.

The earnings of WSO topped the consensus mark in all of the last four quarters, with the average surprise being 24.3%.

KBR, Inc. (KBR - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +1.81% and a Zacks Rank #1.

The earnings of KBR topped the consensus mark in the last four quarters, with the average surprise being 12%.

Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.

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Mohawk Industries, Inc. (MHK) - free report >>