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Factors Likely to Influence lululemon's (LULU) Earnings in Q2

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lululemon athletica inc. (LULU - Free Report) is likely to witness top and bottom-line growth when it reports second-quarter fiscal 2022 results on Sep 1, after market close.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fiscal second-quarter sales is pegged at $1.77 billion, indicating a 22.1% increase from the prior-year quarter's reported figure. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the company's fiscal second-quarter earnings is pinned at $1.86, suggesting a 12.7% rise from $1.65 reported in the year-ago quarter. Earnings estimates have been unchanged in the past 30 days.

The company delivered an earnings surprise of 3.5% in the last reported quarter. LULU's bottom line beat estimates by 14.9%, on average, in the trailing four quarters.

lululemon athletica inc. Price and EPS Surprise

 

lululemon athletica inc. Price and EPS Surprise

lululemon athletica inc. price-eps-surprise | lululemon athletica inc. Quote

Key Factors to Note

lululemon has been benefiting from robust traffic trends in both stores and e-commerce. The persistence of the trend is expected to have boosted the company’s top line and comps in the to-be-reported quarter. It has been capitalizing on the importance of physical retail and the convenience of online engagement. lululemon has been leveraging its stores to facilitate omni-channel capabilities, including buy online pick up in store and ship from store. Continued investments to enhance the in-store experience are likely to have bolstered sales and earnings in the fiscal second quarter.

lululemon has also been gaining from the improving online demand. Its accelerated e-commerce investments to ensure a robust shopping experience also bode well. It has been investing in developing sites, building transactional omni functionality and increasing fulfillment capabilities.

On the last reported quarter’s earnings call, management highlighted that store productivity was higher than the 2019 levels in first-quarter fiscal 2022 and continued to be at similar levels in the second quarter of fiscal 2022. This suggests continued comps growth in the fiscal second quarter. For the second quarter of fiscal 2022, management anticipated net revenues of $1.75-$1.775 billion, indicating growth of 21-22%.

The company expects a relatively flat SG&A expense rate for the fiscal second quarter. Earnings per share are projected to be $1.82-$1.87 for the fiscal second quarter. Management’s EPS guidance excludes the gain of 7 cents per share on a real estate sale, which is expected to be realized in the fiscal second quarter.

However, lululemon has been witnessing delays across the supply chain, mainly with regard to transporting its products through ocean freight. Incidentally, management has been more heavily dependent on air freight. The ongoing supply-chain issues and trimmed air freight capacity not only induced delays but also resulted in increased freight costs. These factors are likely to have affected the company’s gross margin in second-quarter fiscal 2022.

On the last reported quarter’s earnings call, management expected gross margin to be down 200 bps year over year in second-quarter fiscal 2022. The gross margin view included a 150-bps impact from air freight costs due to port congestions and capacity constraints.

What the Zacks Model Unveils

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for lululemon this season. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. But that’s not the case here. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they're reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

lululemon has a Zacks Rank #3 and an Earnings ESP of 0.00%.

Stocks With Favorable Combination

Here are some companies you may want to consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this season:

Dave & Buster's Entertainment (PLAY - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +2.97% and a Zacks Rank of 3. The company is likely to register an increase in the top line when it reports second-quarter fiscal 2022. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly PLAY’s earnings moved down by a penny to $1.01 per share in the past seven days. The estimate suggests a 5.6% decline from the year-ago quarter’s reported number.

You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Dave & Buster's top line is expected to rise year over year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues is pegged at $432.3 million, which suggests a rise of 14.5% from that reported in the prior-year quarter. PLAY has delivered an earnings beat of 41.1%, on average, in the trailing four quarters.

Casey's General Stores (CASY - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +24.88% and a Zacks Rank of 3. The company is likely to register increases in the top and bottom lines when it reports first-quarter fiscal 2023 results. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CASY’s quarterly earnings moved up 14.1% to $3.32 per share in the past seven days. The estimate suggests growth of 4.1% from the year-ago quarter’s reported number.

Casey's top line is expected to rise year over year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues is pegged at $4.6 billion, which suggests a rise of 44.4% from the figure reported in the prior-year quarter. CASY has delivered an earnings beat of 5.8%, on average, in the trailing four quarters.

Brown-Forman (BF.B - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +3.16% and a Zacks Rank #3. BF.B is anticipated to register top and bottom-line growth when it reports first-quarter fiscal 2023 results. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for BF.B’s quarterly revenues is pegged at $983.9 billion, indicating an improvement of 8.6% from the figure reported in the prior-year quarter.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Brown-Forman’s bottom line has moved up 9.1% in the past 30 days to 48 cents per share. The consensus estimate of 48 cents per share indicates growth of 20% from 40 cents reported in the year-ago quarter. BF.B has delivered an earnings beat of 8.1%, on average, in the trailing four quarters.

Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.

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