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What's in the Cards for Delta Air (DAL) in Q3 Earnings?

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Delta Air Lines(DAL - Free Report) is scheduled to report third-quarter 2022 results on Oct 13, before market open.

The company has an impressive earnings surprise history, having outperformed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the preceding four quarters, the average beat being 33.7%.

Delta Air Lines, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

Delta Air Lines, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

Delta Air Lines, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Delta Air Lines, Inc. Quote

Let’s see how things are shaping up for Delta this earnings season.

Q3 Expectations

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Delta’s third-quarter 2022 revenues is pegged at $14.19 billion, indicating 55.1% growth year over year. The top line is likely to have been aided by an uptick in air-travel demand in the United States. Notably, the majority of passenger revenues are coming from the domestic markets. For the third quarter, management expects total revenues to increase in the 1-5% band.

On the flip side, escalating fuel prices continue to bother Delta’s bottom line. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for average fuel price per gallon consumed is pegged at $3.53. Management expects fuel price per gallon in the $3.45-$3.60 range. Backed by higher staffing costs and employee-related expenses, Delta’s increasing non-fuel unit costs are also concerning. Notably, non-fuel unit costs are expected to increase 22% from the third quarter of 2019. For the third quarter of 2022, the carrier expects capacity to decline in the 15-17% band.

What Our Model Says

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Delta this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. But that’s not the case here. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Delta has an Earnings ESP of -2.50% and a Zacks Rank #3.

Highlights of Q2

Delta's second-quarter 2022 earnings (excluding 29 cents from non-recurring items) of $1.44 per share fell short of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.71. In the year-ago quarter, Delta had incurred a loss of $1.07 per share when air-travel demand was not as buoyant as in the current scenario.

Revenues came in at $13,824 million, which not only beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $13,608.9 million and soared 94% from the year-ago quarter’s figure as air-travel demand rebounded from the pandemic lows.

Stocks to Consider

Here are a few stocks from the broader Zacks Transportation sector that investors may consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to beat their third-quarter 2022 earnings:

Canadian National Railway Company (CNI - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +0.74% and a Zacks Rank #3. CNI will release results on Oct 25. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Canadian National has an expected earnings growth rate of 20.7% for the current year. CNI delivered a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 6.7%, on average.

Canadian National has a long-term earnings growth rate of 11.4%.

Canadian Pacific Railway Limited (CP - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +3.81% and a Zacks Rank #3. CP will release results on Oct 26.

Canadian Pacific has an expected earnings growth rate of 12% for the current year.

Canadian Pacific has a long-term earnings growth rate of 9.89%.

CSX Corporation (CSX - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +0.25% and a Zacks Rank #3. CSX will release results on Oct 20.

CSX has an expected earnings growth rate of 21.2% for the current year. CSX delivered a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 6.15%, on average.

CSX has a long-term earnings growth rate of 10.15%.

Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.

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