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MarketAxess (MKTX) Gears Up for Q3 Earnings: What to Expect?

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MarketAxess Holdings Inc. (MKTX - Free Report) is set to report its third-quarter 2022 results on Oct 19, before the opening bell.

In the last reported quarter, the leading electronic trading platform operator reported adjusted earnings per share of $1.78, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 4.1%, backed by robust growth in trading volumes across all product categories, broad-based market share gains and impressive strength exhibited by its new products of U.S. Treasuries and municipal bonds. However, the second-quarter performance was partly offset by an elevated expense level.

MarketAxess beat the consensus estimate in three of the four prior quarters and missed once, with the average earnings surprise being 2.2%. This is depicted in the graph below:

MarketAxess Holdings Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

MarketAxess Holdings Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

MarketAxess Holdings Inc. price-eps-surprise | MarketAxess Holdings Inc. Quote

Let’s see how things have shaped up before the third-quarter earnings announcement.

The trend in Estimate Revision

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter earnings per share of $1.51 has witnessed one downward movement and no upward revision in the past week. The estimated figure suggests a decrease of 0.7% from the prior-year reported number.

However, the consensus estimate for third-quarter revenues of $175.3 million indicates an 8.2% increase from the year-ago reported figure.

Factors to Note

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for average daily volume total credit for the third quarter is pegged at $11,215 million, indicating a jump from $9,311 million a year ago. The consensus estimate for total commissions indicates an 8.4% year-over-year increase.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for total distribution fees is pegged at $31.9 million, indicating an increase from $30.7 million in the year-ago period. The consensus mark for total transaction fees is pegged at $124 million, signaling an increase from the year-ago level of $112 million.

The above-mentioned projections might have boosted MKTX’s top line in the quarter under review. However, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the average variable transaction fee per million for U.S. high-grade indicates a 13.9% year-over-year decline, which might have affected its profit levels.

Furthermore, high expenses due to ongoing investments in several areas, including the trading platform, new protocols and infrastructure as well as headcount additions are likely to have put margins under pressure, reducing the bottom line. This makes an earnings beat look uncertain for MKTX in the third quarter.

Earnings Whispers

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for MarketAxess this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat. That is not the case here as you will see below.

Earnings ESP: The company has an Earnings ESP of -1.19%, as the Most Accurate Estimate is currently pegged at $1.49 per share, lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.51.

You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: MarketAxess currently carries a Zacks Rank #3.

Stocks to Consider

While an earnings beat looks uncertain for MarketAxess, here are some companies from the Finance space that you may want to consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this time around:

Axos Financial, Inc. (AX - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +4.06% and is a Zacks #1 Ranked player. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Axos Financial’s bottom line for the to-be-reported quarter is pegged at $1.13 per share, implying a 9.7% improvement from the year-ago figure. AX beat earnings estimates in each of the past four quarters, with an average surprise of 10.1%.

Discover Financial Services (DFS - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +2.20% and a Zacks Rank of 3.

Discover Financial’s bottom line for the to-be-reported quarter is expected to benefit from its solid market position, expansion in the global payments business and attractive core business. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for DFS’ bottom line for the to-be-reported quarter is pegged at $3.68 per share, implying a 4% improvement from the year-ago figure.  

CME Group Inc. (CME - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +1.25% and is a Zacks #3 Ranked player.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CME Group’s bottom line for the to-be-reported quarter indicates an 18.8% jump from a year ago. The consensus mark for CME’s top line indicates a 10.6% year-over-year increase.

Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.

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