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Eli Lilly (LLY) to Report Q3 Earnings: What's in the Cards?
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Eli Lilly & Company (LLY - Free Report) will report third-quarter 2022 results on Nov 1, before market open. In the last reported quarter, the company delivered a negative earnings surprise of 30.56%.
This large drugmaker’s earnings performance has been rather weak, with the company missing earnings expectations in three of the last four quarters while beating in one. Lilly delivered a four-quarter negative earnings surprise of 5.11%, on average.
Lilly’s stock has risen 27.2% this year so far compared with an increase of 0.1% for the industry.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Factors to Consider
In the third quarter, higher demand and volume growth for its key drugs, including Trulicity, Taltz, Verzenio, Jardiance, Olumiant, and Emgality is likely to have provided top-line support.
Newer products like Retevmo, Mounjaro (tirzepatide) are likely to have contributed to sales growth.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Trulicity, Taltz, Verzenio, Jardiance, Olumiant, and Emgality is $1.95 billion, $707 million, $604 million, $512 million, $269 million and $184 million, respectively.
Our estimates for Trulicity, Taltz, Verzenio, Jardiance, Olumiant, and Emgality are $1.87 billion, $709.9 million, $560.5 million, $522.9 million, $309.6 million and $196.8 million, respectively.
While volumes are expected to have increased for most drugs, lower realized prices due to changes to estimates for rebates and discounts as well as updated NRDL price reductions in China are likely to have continued to hurt sales of most drugs, mainly Taltz. Currency headwinds are also likely to have hurt the top line.
Sales of most established drugs like Forteo, Humalog, Humulin, Alimta are likely to have declined in the quarter.
Alimta sales are expected to have been hurt by generic competition. Multiple generic versions of the drug were launched in the United States in the second quarter even as generic erosion in the ex- U.S. markets continues. The Zacks Consensus Estimate as well as our estimate for Alimta is $102 million and $120.1 million, respectively.
COVID antibody sales are expected to have contributed to the overall top line due to a new U.S. government supply deal for bebtelovimab, which was signed in June. In the same month, Lilly announced that it would supply an additional 150,000 doses of its COVID-19 drug, bebtelovimab to the U.S. government for approximately $275 million, per a modified deal. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for COVID antibody sales is $162 million.
Earnings Whispers
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Lilly this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESPand a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. But that is not the case here.
Earnings ESP: Lilly’s Earnings ESP is -2.50%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate is pegged at $197 per share. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Zacks Rank: Lilly has a Zacks Rank #3.
Stocks to Consider
Here are some biotech stocks that have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this time around:
Blueprint Medicines Corporation (BPMC - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +1.49% and a Zacks Rank #3.
Blueprint Medicines missed earnings expectations in three of the trailing four quarters while delivering in-line results in one. It delivered a four-quarter negative earnings surprise of 19.49%, on average.
Blueprint Medicines is scheduled to release its third-quarter 2022 results on Nov 1. The stock has lost 52.4% this year so far.
Editas Medicine (EDIT - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +3.47% and a Zacks Rank #2.
Editas’ stock has declined 56.2% in the year so far. EDIT beat earnings expectations in each of the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 17.82%.
Acadia (ACAD - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +6.47% and a Zacks Rank #3.
Acadia’s stock has lost 32.7% this year so far. ACAD topped earnings estimates in two of the last four quarters. ACAD has a four-quarter earnings surprise of 6.83%, on average. ACAD is scheduled to release its third-quarter 2022 results on Nov 2.
Image: Shutterstock
Eli Lilly (LLY) to Report Q3 Earnings: What's in the Cards?
Eli Lilly & Company (LLY - Free Report) will report third-quarter 2022 results on Nov 1, before market open. In the last reported quarter, the company delivered a negative earnings surprise of 30.56%.
This large drugmaker’s earnings performance has been rather weak, with the company missing earnings expectations in three of the last four quarters while beating in one. Lilly delivered a four-quarter negative earnings surprise of 5.11%, on average.
Eli Lilly and Company Price and EPS Surprise
Eli Lilly and Company price-eps-surprise | Eli Lilly and Company Quote
Lilly’s stock has risen 27.2% this year so far compared with an increase of 0.1% for the industry.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Factors to Consider
In the third quarter, higher demand and volume growth for its key drugs, including Trulicity, Taltz, Verzenio, Jardiance, Olumiant, and Emgality is likely to have provided top-line support.
Newer products like Retevmo, Mounjaro (tirzepatide) are likely to have contributed to sales growth.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Trulicity, Taltz, Verzenio, Jardiance, Olumiant, and Emgality is $1.95 billion, $707 million, $604 million, $512 million, $269 million and $184 million, respectively.
Our estimates for Trulicity, Taltz, Verzenio, Jardiance, Olumiant, and Emgality are $1.87 billion, $709.9 million, $560.5 million, $522.9 million, $309.6 million and $196.8 million, respectively.
While volumes are expected to have increased for most drugs, lower realized prices due to changes to estimates for rebates and discounts as well as updated NRDL price reductions in China are likely to have continued to hurt sales of most drugs, mainly Taltz. Currency headwinds are also likely to have hurt the top line.
Sales of most established drugs like Forteo, Humalog, Humulin, Alimta are likely to have declined in the quarter.
Alimta sales are expected to have been hurt by generic competition. Multiple generic versions of the drug were launched in the United States in the second quarter even as generic erosion in the ex- U.S. markets continues. The Zacks Consensus Estimate as well as our estimate for Alimta is $102 million and $120.1 million, respectively.
COVID antibody sales are expected to have contributed to the overall top line due to a new U.S. government supply deal for bebtelovimab, which was signed in June. In the same month, Lilly announced that it would supply an additional 150,000 doses of its COVID-19 drug, bebtelovimab to the U.S. government for approximately $275 million, per a modified deal. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for COVID antibody sales is $162 million.
Earnings Whispers
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Lilly this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESPand a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. But that is not the case here.
Earnings ESP: Lilly’s Earnings ESP is -2.50%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate is pegged at $197 per share. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Zacks Rank: Lilly has a Zacks Rank #3.
Stocks to Consider
Here are some biotech stocks that have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this time around:
Blueprint Medicines Corporation (BPMC - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +1.49% and a Zacks Rank #3.
Blueprint Medicines missed earnings expectations in three of the trailing four quarters while delivering in-line results in one. It delivered a four-quarter negative earnings surprise of 19.49%, on average.
Blueprint Medicines is scheduled to release its third-quarter 2022 results on Nov 1. The stock has lost 52.4% this year so far.
Editas Medicine (EDIT - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +3.47% and a Zacks Rank #2.
Editas’ stock has declined 56.2% in the year so far. EDIT beat earnings expectations in each of the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 17.82%.
Acadia (ACAD - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +6.47% and a Zacks Rank #3.
Acadia’s stock has lost 32.7% this year so far. ACAD topped earnings estimates in two of the last four quarters. ACAD has a four-quarter earnings surprise of 6.83%, on average. ACAD is scheduled to release its third-quarter 2022 results on Nov 2.
Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.