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Here's Why Lululemon (LULU) is Poised for Earnings Beat in Q3

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lululemon athletica inc. (LULU - Free Report) is likely to witness top and bottom-line growth when it reports third-quarter fiscal 2022 results on Dec 8, after market close.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fiscal third-quarter sales is pegged at $1.8 billion, indicating a 24.4% increase from the prior-year quarter's reported figure. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the company's fiscal third-quarter earnings is pinned at $1.95, suggesting a 20.4% rise from the $1.62 reported in the year-ago quarter. Earnings estimates have been unchanged in the past 30 days.

The company delivered an earnings surprise of 18.3% in the last reported quarter. LULU's bottom line beat estimates by 10.4%, on average, in the trailing four quarters.

lululemon athletica inc. Price and EPS Surprise

 

lululemon athletica inc. Price and EPS Surprise

lululemon athletica inc. price-eps-surprise | lululemon athletica inc. Quote

Key Factors to Note

lululemon has been benefiting from robust traffic trends in both stores and e-commerce. The persistence of the trend is expected to have boosted the company’s top line and comps in the to-be-reported quarter. It has been capitalizing on the importance of physical retail and the convenience of online engagement. lululemon has been leveraging its stores to facilitate omni-channel capabilities, including buy online pick up in store and ship from store. Continued investments to enhance the in-store experience are likely to have bolstered sales and earnings in the fiscal third quarter.

lululemon has been gaining from improving online demand. Its accelerated e-commerce investments to ensure a robust shopping experience also bode well. It has been investing in developing sites, building transactional omni functionality and increasing fulfillment capabilities.

On the last reported quarter’s earnings call, management anticipated net revenue of $1.78-$1.805 billion for the third quarter of fiscal 2022. The company’s guidance indicates 23-24% year-over-year growth and a 25% rise on a three-year CAGR basis. Our estimate for fiscal third-quarter revenues is pegged at $1.782 billion. We expect fiscal third-quarter adjusted EPS to be $1.94, which is likely to meet the high-end of the company’s guidance of $1.90-$1.95. The company expects a relatively flat SG&A expense rate for the fiscal third quarter.

However, lululemon has been witnessing delays across the supply chain, mainly with regard to transporting its products through ocean freight. Incidentally, management has been more heavily dependent on air freight. The ongoing supply-chain issues and trimmed air freight capacity not only induced delays but also resulted in increased freight costs. These factors are likely to have affected the company’s gross margin in third-quarter fiscal 2022.

On the last reported quarter’s earnings call, management expected the fiscal third-quarter gross margin to be down 50-70 bps year over year. Although the company assumes lower impacts of air freight on the gross margin in the fiscal third quarter, it expects the timing of supply-chain-related expenses and the normalized markdowns in the quarter compared with the prior-year quarter to hurt the results.

What the Zacks Model Unveils

Our proven model conclusively predicts an earnings beat for lululemon this season. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they're reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

lululemon has a Zacks Rank #2 and an Earnings ESP of +0.27%.

Other Stocks With Favorable Combination

Here are some other companies you may want to consider, as our model shows that these also have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat:

Archer Daniels Midland (ADM - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +0.76% and currently sports a Zacks Rank #1. The company is anticipated to have registered top and bottom-line growth in fourth-quarter 2022. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for ADM’s quarterly earnings has moved up 1.3% in the last 30 days to $1.55 per share, suggesting 3.3% growth from the year-ago quarter's reported number.

You can see the complete list of today's Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Archer Daniels’ quarterly revenues is pegged at $26.4 billion, suggesting growth of 14.5% from the figure reported in the prior-year quarter. ADM has delivered an earnings beat of 26.2%, on average, in the trailing four quarters.

Altria Group (MO - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +1.56% and a Zacks Rank #3. The company is expected to register top and bottom-line growth when it reports fourth-quarter 2022 numbers. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for MO’s quarterly earnings was unchanged in the last 30 days at $1.17 per share, suggesting growth of 7.3%% from the year-ago quarter's reported number.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Altria Group’s quarterly revenues is pegged at $5.13 billion, which suggests growth of 0.8% from the figure reported in the prior-year quarter. MO has delivered an earnings beat of 0.3%, on average, in the trailing four quarters.

Casey's General Stores (CASY - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +12.58% and a Zacks Rank of 3. The company is expected to have registered top and bottom-line growth in second-quarter fiscal 2023. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CASY’s quarterly revenues is pegged at $4.2 billion, which suggests a rise of 27.5% from the figure reported in the prior-year quarter.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CASY’s quarterly earnings moved up 5.1% in the last 30 days to $3.10 per share, suggesting 19.7% growth from the year-ago quarter's reported number. CASY has delivered an earnings beat of 1.3%, on average, in the trailing four quarters.

Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.

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