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What's in the Cards for Thor (THO) This Earnings Season?

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Thor Industries (THO - Free Report) is scheduled to release first-quarter fiscal 2023 results on Dec 7, before the opening bell. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the to-be-reported quarter’s earnings per share and revenues is pegged at $2.08 and $3.12 billion, respectively.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Thor’s fiscal first-quarter earnings per share has been revised south by 3 cents in the past 30 days. The bottom-line projection implies a year-over-year drop of 52%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues suggests a year-over-year decline of 21.2%.

This Indiana-based largest manufacturer of recreational vehicles (RVs) in the world posted better-than-expected earnings in the last reported quarter on higher-than-anticipated revenues and gross profits from North American Motorized RVs segment. The company surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in the trailing four quarters, the average being 33.2%. This is depicted in the graph below:

Factors to Shape Q1 Results

The RV market is highly consumer cyclic and dependent on business cycles and economic conditions. Fears of economic slowdown triggered by sky-high inflation and rising interest rates have started to weigh on industry participants like Thor. The number of RV units sold by Thor in the fiscal first quarter of 2023 is likely to have declined from the year-ago period.

In addition to the declining unit sales, inflationary concerns and severe supply chain disruptions have been increasing the cost of manufacturing RVs. What’s partially offsetting these headwinds is the smart pricing actions undertaken by the company to pass the rising costs of raw materials and other components to customers.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fiscal first-quarter 2023 revenues from the North American Motorized RVs segment is pegged at $1,036 million, indicating a rise from $925 million recorded in the year-ago period. The consensus mark for revenues from the North American Towable RVs unit is $1,760 million, implying a year-over-year contraction of 21.5%. The consensus mark for revenues from the European RV segment is $450 million, indicating a decrease from $633 million registered in the year-ago period. Supply constraints and shortage of various RV components are more conspicuous in Thor’s European segment.

What Does Our Model Say

Our proven model doesn’t conclusively predict an earnings beat for Thor in the to-be-reported quarter, as it does not have the right combination of the two key ingredients. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. That’s not the case here.

Earnings ESP: Thor has an Earnings ESP of -11.54%. This is because the Most Accurate Estimate is pegged 24 cents lower the Zacks Consensus Estimate. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: Thor carries a Zacks Rank of 3 currently.

You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Earnings Whispers for Peers

REV Group (REVG - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of 0.00% and a Zacks Rank #3. The stock is slated to report fiscal fourth-quarter 2022 earnings on Dec 14.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for REV Group’s to-be-reported quarter’s earnings and revenues is pegged at 26 cents per share and $598 million, respectively. REVG surpassed earnings estimates in two of the last four quarters for as many misses, with the average negative surprise being 5.3%.

Winnebago Industries (WGO - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +6.56% and a Zacks Rank #4. The stock is scheduled to post fourth-quarter fiscal 2022 on Dec 16.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Winnebago’s to-be-reported quarter’s earnings and revenues is pegged at $1.83 per share and $899 million, respectively. Encouragingly, WGO surpassed earnings estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, with the average surprise being 23.5%.

Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.


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