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4 Best Areas of Q4 Up At Least 20% & Their Top ETFs

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The fourth quarter of 2022 is just about to wrap up. The broader market has posted mixed performance during this time frame mainly due to moderately-high inflation, a super-hawkish Fed and the resultant rising rate worries. Central banks around the world have been on this path in recent days to tame inflation.

The Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan have all sounded hawkish in the fourth quarter. The Fed and the ECB each raised interest rates by 50 bps during its last monetary policy meeting of 2022. Bank of Japan (BoJ) also unexpectedly tweaked its bond yield control policy — a move that will allow long-term interest rates to rise more (read: ETFs to Play BoJ's Surprise Policy Shift).

On a positive note, inflation data showed signs of cooling. The central banks may slow down the rate hike momentum in the coming days. China stocks (those have long been crushed due to regulators’ crackdown on various sectors) recorded an astral rebound in November as plans for a sweeping rescue package to bail out developers sent Chinese property stocks rallying (read: China ETFs Rallying: Top Gainers Past Month).

The S&P 500, the Dow Jones and the Russell 2000 have gained about 4.1%, 12.2% and 4.8%, respectively, in the past three months (as of Dec 23, 2022). The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite has lost 3.4%.

Against this backdrop, below, we highlight a few ETF areas that won in the fourth quarter.

Energy

iShares U.S. Oil Equipment & Services ETF (IEZ - Free Report) – Up 50.6%

VanEck Oil Services ETF (OIH) – Up 49.5%

The segment was bullish thanks to the upbeat oil market. OPEC+ producers agreed on deep output cuts in October, seeking to spur a recovery in crude prices despite repeated calls from U.S. President Joe Biden’s administration for the group to pump more to lower fuel prices and contain global inflation.

An easing of the dollar, continued risks of supply due to the prolonged supply-chain crisis, price caps on Russian crude imposed by the G7 nations and Russia’s decision to cut production – all contributed to the gains in energy ETFs (read: Pain or Gain Ahead for Energy ETFs?).

China Healthcare

Loncar China BioPharma ETF – Up 32.7%

Global X MSCI China Health Care ETF (CHIH) – Up 24.5%

The worst COVID-19 outbreak in China probably made the space a winner. Cities across China have been installing hospital beds and building fever screening clinics. No wonder, bio-pharma and healthcare companies have been making the most of this emergency.

Silver

Invesco DB Silver ETF – Up 26.4%

iShares Silver Trust (SLV) – Up 25.9%

The greenback lost materially in the fourth quarter as the bets over slower Fed rate hikes increased. Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP - Free Report) has lost about 7.7% in the past three months (as of Dec 23, 2022). Since bullions are priced in the U.S. dollar, a falling greenback proved favorable for silver prices.

Shortage fears also supported prices, as New York’s COMEX inventories dropped 70% in the last 18 months to just over 1 million tons. Also, the London Bullion Market Association stockpiles declined for 10 months in a row to a record-low 27.1 thousand tons in November, per tradingeconomics.

Europe

iShares MSCI Eurozone ETF (EZU - Free Report) – Up 22.6%

First Trust STOXX European Select Dividend ETF (FDD) – Up 21.5%

European markets have shown much better performance in the fourth quarter than the U.S. market. The Eurozone quarterly economic growth was revised slightly higher to 0.3% in the third quarter of 2022 from preliminary estimates of 0.2%, and following a 0.8% expansion in the previous three-month period. The ECB raised interest rates by 50 bps during its last monetary policy meeting of 2022, marking a fourth-rate increase, following two successive 75 bps hikes. However, the total magnitude of hikes is still lower than the U.S. economy.


 

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