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Is a Beat in Store for Norfolk Southern (NSC) in Q4 Earnings?

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Norfolk Southern Corporation (NSC - Free Report) is scheduled to report fourth-quarter 2022 results on Jan 25, before market open.

Norfolk Southern has an impressive earnings surprise history, having outperformed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the preceding four quarters, the average beat being 4.06%.

Let’s see how things have shaped up for Norfolk Southern this earnings season.

Q4 Expectations

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Norfolk Southern’s fourth-quarter 2022 revenues is pegged at $3.17 billion, indicating 11.19% growth year over year. The top line is likely to have been aided by strength across its segments — Merchandise, Intermodal and Coal.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter Merchandise revenues is pegged at $1,817 million, indicating 8.7% growth from the year-ago reported figure.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter Intermodal revenues is pegged at $911 million, indicating 9.6% growth from the year-ago reported figure.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter Coal revenues is pegged at $404 million, indicating 15.4% growth from the year-ago reported figure.

On the flip side, escalating operating expenses, primarily due to rising fuel prices, continue to bother NSC’s bottom line. Moreover, supply-chain disruptions and slower network velocity are expected to have weighed on volumes in the fourth quarter. Notably, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for NSC’s fourth-quarter 2022 earnings has been revised downward by 4.4% in the past 90 days.

What Our Model Says

Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Norfolk Southern this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP  and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat, which is the case here, as you can see below. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they're reported with our  Earnings ESP Filter.

Norfolk Southern has an Earnings ESP of +0.55% and a Zacks Rank #3.

Highlights of Q3

Norfolk Southern third-quarter 2022 earnings of $4.10 per share surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.64. Moreover, the bottom line improved 34% year over year.

Railway operating revenues in the quarter under review came in at $3,343 million, outperforming the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3,219.6 million. The top line increased 17.22% year over year, with all segments, Merchandise, Intermodal and Coal, registering improvement in revenues. Revenue per unit rose 20% year over year, driven by higher fuel surcharges and pricing.

Other Stocks to Consider

Here are a few stocks from the broader Zacks Transportation sector that investors may consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to beat their fourth-quarter 2022 earnings estimates:

American Airlines (AAL - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +16.71% and a Zacks Rank #2. AAL will release results on Jan 26. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

American Airlines has an expected earnings growth rate of more than 100% for fourth-quarter 2022. AAL delivered a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 8.62%, on average.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for AAL’s fourth-quarter 2022 earnings has been revised upward by more than 100% in the past 90 days.

Copa Holdings, S.A. (CPA - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +8.05% and a Zacks Rank #3. CPA will release results on Feb 15.

Copa Holdings has an expected earnings growth rate of 89.9% for fourth-quarter 2022. CPA delivered a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 48.95%, on average.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CPA’s fourth-quarter 2022 earnings has been revised upward by 41.3% in the past 90 days.

Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.

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