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Will Nasdaq (NDAQ) Keep Its Beat Streak Alive in Q4 Earnings?

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Nasdaq, Inc. (NDAQ - Free Report) is slated to report fourth-quarter 2022 earnings on Jan 25, before the opening bell. The company delivered an earnings surprise in each of the last four quarters, the average being 5.88%.

Factors to Consider

Solid organic revenue growth, strong performance at index and analytics businesses and contributions from the acquisition of Verafin are likely to have aided Nasdaq’s fourth-quarter performance.

Improved performance at Market Technology, Market Data and Analytics businesses is expected to have benefited non-trading revenues.

We expect Analytics revenues to increase 5.9% to $58.2 million, while market data revenues are expected to increase 2.4% to $106.5 million

Improved anti-financial crime technology revenues owing to the inclusion of revenues from the acquisition of Verafin, new sales and strong retention, higher SaaS revenues as well as organic revenue growth are likely to have aided Market Technology revenues. We expect Market Technology revenues to be $130.7 million in the fourth quarter.

Market Services segment revenues are likely to have been driven by better performance at Equity Derivatives Trading and Clearing and Trade Management Services. We expect Market Services segment revenues to be $306.4 million.

Expenses are likely to have increased owing to the development and diversification of its business, compensation and benefits, merger and strategic initiatives, restructuring charges, general, administrative and other expenses. These are expected to have weighed on margin expansion.

Nasdaq expects 2022 non-GAAP operating expenses in the range of $1.70 billion to $1.72 billion. We expect the metric to increase 5.5% to $1.7 billion.

The continued share buyback is anticipated to have provided an additional boost to the bottom line.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings stands at 66 cents, indicating a 3.1% increase from the prior-year reported figure. We expect the bottom line to be 64 cents for the to-be-reported quarter.

Q4 Volumes

Nasdaq reported soft volumes for fourth-quarter 2022. U.S. equity options volume decreased 2.7% year over year to 789 million contracts. European options and futures volume decreased 3.3% year over year to 17.7 million contracts.

Revenues per contract for U.S. equity options increased 20% year over year to 12 cents, while the same for European options and futures decreased 14.5% to 47 cents.

Under its cash equities, Nasdaq’s U.S. matched equity volume in the fourth quarter grossed 122 billion shares, up 2.6% from the prior-year quarter. European equity volume decreased 34% year over year to $197 billion.

In the fourth quarter, there were 4,953 listed companies on Nasdaq compared with 4,972 in the year-ago period. Total listings grew 1.3% year over year to 5,529.

We expect listing revenues to increase 4.3% to $108.5 million in the to-be-reported quarter.

What Our Quantitative Model States

Our proven model predicts Nasdaq to beat estimates this time around. This is because the stock has the right combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold).

Earnings ESP: Nasdaq has an Earnings ESP of +0.20%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Nasdaq, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

Nasdaq, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

Nasdaq, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Nasdaq, Inc. Quote

Zacks Rank: Nasdaq currently carries a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Other Stocks to Consider

Here are three stocks from the finance sector that you may want to consider, as our model shows that these also have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat:

Cboe Global Markets (CBOE - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +1.48% and a Zacks Rank of 2. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter 2022 earnings is pegged at $1.73, indicating an increase of 1.8% from the year-ago reported figure.

CBOE’s earnings beat estimates in three of the last four reported quarters while missing in one.

Aflac Incorporated (AFL - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +2.12% and a Zacks Rank #2. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter 2022 earnings is pegged at $1.21, suggesting a decline of 5.5% from the figure reported in the year-ago quarter.

AFL’s earnings beat estimates in all the last four reported quarters.

American International Group (AIG - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +13.33% and a Zacks Rank of 2. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter 2022 earnings stands at $1.14, indicating a decline of 27.8% from the reported figure in the year-ago quarter.

AIG’s earnings beat estimates in three of the last four reported quarters while missing in one.

Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.

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