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Can Chevron (CVX) Deliver Another Strong Earnings Show in Q4?

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Chevron Corporation (CVX - Free Report) is set to release fourth-quarter results on Jan 27. The current Zacks Consensus Estimate for the to-be-reported quarter is a profit of $4.27 per share on revenues of $53.6 billion.

Let’s delve into the factors that might have influenced the American energy biggie’s performance in the December quarter. But it’s worth taking a look at Chevron’s previous-quarter performance first.

Highlights of Q3 Earnings & Surprise History

In the last reported quarter, the San Ramon, CA-based integrated player beat the consensus on robust commodity prices and product margins, which propelled both CVX segments to a better-than-expected bottom line. Chevron had reported adjusted earnings per share of $5.56, eclipsing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 54 cents. Revenues of $66.6 billion had also come in 13% above the consensus mark.

Chevron beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in two of the last four quarters and missed in the others, which resulted in an earnings surprise of 1.7%, on average. This is depicted in the graph below:
 

Halliburton Company Price and EPS Surprise

Halliburton Company Price and EPS Surprise

Halliburton Company price-eps-surprise | Halliburton Company Quote

 

Trend in Estimate Revision

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the fourth-quarter bottom line has remained unchanged in the past seven days. The estimated figure indicates a 66.8% improvement year over year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues, meanwhile, suggests an 11.3% increase from the year-ago period.

Factors to Consider

Chevron is expected to have benefited from the strength in upstream segment revenues and cash flows. As a matter of fact, for the to-be-reported quarter, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the upstream unit is pegged at a profit of $6.7 billion, indicating a significant jump from the prior-year quarter’s income of $5.2 billion.

CVX is also expected to have reaped the reward of a better macro environment in its downstream (or refining) unit. With margins remaining healthy, the company should see segment earnings surge year over year. Echoing Chevron’s healthy downstream dynamics, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the to-be-reported quarter’s income is projected at $1.7 billion. The number suggests a more than doubling from the profit of $760 million reported in the year-ago quarter.

Why a Likely Positive Surprise?

Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Chevron this season. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat.

You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Chevron has an Earnings ESP of +1.67% and a Zacks Rank #3.

Other Stocks to Consider

Chevron is not the only energy company looking up this earnings cycle. Here are some other firms from the space that you may want to consider on the basis of our model:

Helmerich & Payne (HP - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +8.68% and a Zacks Rank #1. The firm is scheduled to release earnings on Jan 30.

You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

For fiscal 2023, Helmerich & Payne has a projected earnings growth rate of 4,380%. Valued at around $5 billion, HP has gained 67.1% in a year.

Halliburton Company (HAL - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +0.30% and a Zacks Rank #2. The firm is scheduled to release earnings on Jan 24.

HAL topped the Zacks Consensus Estimate by an average of 5.5% in the trailing four quarters, including a 7.1% beat in Q3. Halliburton has gained 42.3% in a year.

Valero Energy Corporation (VLO - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +1.55% and a Zacks Rank #3. The firm is scheduled to release earnings on Jan 26.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for VLO’s 2022 earnings has been revised 5.2% upward over the past 90 days. Valued at around $55 billion, Valero Energy has gained 81.6% in a year.

Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.

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