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Chipotle (CMG) to Report Q4 Earnings: What's in the Offing?

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Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG - Free Report) is scheduled to report fourth-quarter 2022 results on Feb 7. In the last reported quarter, the company delivered an earnings surprise of 4.4%.

How Are Estimates Placed?

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings is pegged at $8.9 per share, indicating growth of 59.5% from $5.58 registered in the year-ago quarter. For revenues, the Zacks Consensus Estimate is pegged at nearly $2,230 million, suggesting an increase of 13.7% from the prior-year quarter’s figure.

Let’s discuss the factors that are likely to get reflected in the quarter-to-be reported.

Factors at Play

Chipotle's fourth-quarter performance is likely to have benefited from its digital efforts, Chipotlane add-ons and new restaurant openings. The company has also been gaining from menu innovations and robust comps growth. This along with solid contributions from the food and beverage, and delivery revenues are likely to have aided the company’s top line in the fourth quarter.

We expect food and beverage revenues to increase 13.5% year over year to $2,201.2 million. Delivery service revenues is expected to be $21.6 million, up 1.6% year over year.

We expect comparable restaurant sales to increase 6.8%. Restaurant level margin is likely to be 23.9% compared with 20.2% reported in the prior-year quarter.  

The company, like other industry players, has been facing significant supply-chain challenges and inflation across most commodities and categories. Fourth-quarter 2022 food, beverage and packaging costs are likely to be $663.8 million compared with $620.2 million in the prior-year quarter.

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise


What the Zacks Model Unveils

Our proven model doesn’t conclusively predict an earnings beat for Chipotle this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat.

Earnings ESP: Chipotle has an Earnings ESP of -0.24%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: The company carries a Zacks Rank #3 at present.

Stocks Poised to Beat Earnings Estimates

Here are some companies in the Retail-Wholesale space, which, per our model, have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat in the upcoming releases.

Yum! Brands, Inc. (YUM - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +2.14% and a Zacks Rank #2. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Shares of Yum! Brands have gained 2.4% in the past year. YUM has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of negative 3.7% on average.

Yum China Holdings, Inc. (YUMC - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +7.14% and a Zacks Rank #2.

Shares of Yum China have increased 29.2% in the past year. YUMC’s has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 263.4%, on average.

Shake Shack Inc. (SHAK - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +8.08% and a Zacks Rank #3.

Shares of Shake Shack have declined 14.5% in the past year. SHAK’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the last four quarters. The company has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 37.2%, on average.

Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.

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