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Higher Rates to Aid Hilltop Holdings (HTH) Amid Cost Woes
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Hilltop Holdings Inc. (HTH - Free Report) is poised for top-line growth, supported by the rise in loan demand and higher interest rates. The company's restructuring efforts to diversify business as a profitable banking operation are commendable.
Moreover, analysts are optimistic regarding its earnings growth potential. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the company’s current-year earnings has been revised 7.5% upward over the past 30 days.
However, elevated expenses and rising mortgage rates are HTH’s major concerns, which might hamper its profitability. Thus, Hilltop Holdings currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).
Over the past year, shares of the company have gained 11.6% against a decline of 4.5% recorded by the industry.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Looking at its fundamentals, the company’s net interest income (NII) witnessed a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 1.7% over the past six years (2017-2022). The rise was partly driven by acquisitions completed during that period. Robust loans and deposit balances, as well as rising interest rates, are expected to continue to support NII growth in the quarters ahead. We project NII to increase 9.7% in 2023, 6.1% in 2024 and 9% in 2025.
Hilltop Holdings’ net interest margin (NIM) witnessed a declining trend over the past several years. Nevertheless, with the Federal Reserve raising interest rates since mid-March 2022 to tame the raging inflation, the company’s NIM is no longer expected to be under pressure. In 2022, NIM increased on a year-over-year basis to 2.87%. We project NIM to be 3.5% in 2023, 3.85% in 2024 and 4.27% in 2025.
HTH has been increasing dividends on a regular basis since 2016, with the last one announced in January 2023. Its board of directors approved a new stock repurchase program through January 2024, under which HTH may repurchase up to $75 million of its outstanding common stock. Given its earnings strength and strong capital and liquidity positions, the company is expected to keep boosting shareholder value through sustainable capital deployment activities.
However, Hilltop Holdings’ non-interest expenses witnessed a six-year (2016-2021) CAGR of 1.9% mainly due to higher compensation and benefit costs. While expenses declined in 2022, overall costs are expected to increase in the near term, given the company’s steady investments in franchise, inflationary pressure, continued hiring and inorganic growth plans. Per our estimates, while expenses are projected to decline 2% in 2023, the same will likely increase 6% and 5.7% in 2024 and 2025, respectively.
Moreover, the Mortgage Origination segment’s performance remains a matter of concern. Mortgage volumes started to decline since the fourth quarter of 2016 mainly due to higher interest rates. Mortgage loan origination volumes decreased 6.5% in 2017 and 5.3% in 2018. While the same increased in 2019 and 2020 (driven by lower rates), it decreased again in 2021 by 1.3% and in 2022 by 44.2%. Rising mortgage rates will likely hurt origination volumes in the quarters ahead, in turn, straining the segment’s performance.
Stocks to Consider
A couple of better-ranked stocks from the finance space are The Bank of New York Mellon (BK - Free Report) and State Street (STT - Free Report) .
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for BNY Mellon’s current-year earnings has moved 1.5% higher over the past 30 days. Its shares have gained 19.1% in the past six months. Currently, BK sports a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
State Street currently carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). Its earnings estimates for 2023 have been revised 3.3% upward over the past 30 days. In the past six months, STT’s shares have rallied 29.8%.
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Higher Rates to Aid Hilltop Holdings (HTH) Amid Cost Woes
Hilltop Holdings Inc. (HTH - Free Report) is poised for top-line growth, supported by the rise in loan demand and higher interest rates. The company's restructuring efforts to diversify business as a profitable banking operation are commendable.
Moreover, analysts are optimistic regarding its earnings growth potential. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the company’s current-year earnings has been revised 7.5% upward over the past 30 days.
However, elevated expenses and rising mortgage rates are HTH’s major concerns, which might hamper its profitability. Thus, Hilltop Holdings currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).
Over the past year, shares of the company have gained 11.6% against a decline of 4.5% recorded by the industry.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Looking at its fundamentals, the company’s net interest income (NII) witnessed a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 1.7% over the past six years (2017-2022). The rise was partly driven by acquisitions completed during that period. Robust loans and deposit balances, as well as rising interest rates, are expected to continue to support NII growth in the quarters ahead. We project NII to increase 9.7% in 2023, 6.1% in 2024 and 9% in 2025.
Hilltop Holdings’ net interest margin (NIM) witnessed a declining trend over the past several years. Nevertheless, with the Federal Reserve raising interest rates since mid-March 2022 to tame the raging inflation, the company’s NIM is no longer expected to be under pressure. In 2022, NIM increased on a year-over-year basis to 2.87%. We project NIM to be 3.5% in 2023, 3.85% in 2024 and 4.27% in 2025.
HTH has been increasing dividends on a regular basis since 2016, with the last one announced in January 2023. Its board of directors approved a new stock repurchase program through January 2024, under which HTH may repurchase up to $75 million of its outstanding common stock. Given its earnings strength and strong capital and liquidity positions, the company is expected to keep boosting shareholder value through sustainable capital deployment activities.
However, Hilltop Holdings’ non-interest expenses witnessed a six-year (2016-2021) CAGR of 1.9% mainly due to higher compensation and benefit costs. While expenses declined in 2022, overall costs are expected to increase in the near term, given the company’s steady investments in franchise, inflationary pressure, continued hiring and inorganic growth plans. Per our estimates, while expenses are projected to decline 2% in 2023, the same will likely increase 6% and 5.7% in 2024 and 2025, respectively.
Moreover, the Mortgage Origination segment’s performance remains a matter of concern. Mortgage volumes started to decline since the fourth quarter of 2016 mainly due to higher interest rates. Mortgage loan origination volumes decreased 6.5% in 2017 and 5.3% in 2018. While the same increased in 2019 and 2020 (driven by lower rates), it decreased again in 2021 by 1.3% and in 2022 by 44.2%. Rising mortgage rates will likely hurt origination volumes in the quarters ahead, in turn, straining the segment’s performance.
Stocks to Consider
A couple of better-ranked stocks from the finance space are The Bank of New York Mellon (BK - Free Report) and State Street (STT - Free Report) .
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for BNY Mellon’s current-year earnings has moved 1.5% higher over the past 30 days. Its shares have gained 19.1% in the past six months. Currently, BK sports a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
State Street currently carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). Its earnings estimates for 2023 have been revised 3.3% upward over the past 30 days. In the past six months, STT’s shares have rallied 29.8%.